Monday night is the closest thing the 2026 schedule has produced to a Super Bowl preview. This is a marquee matchup in all the right ways — Stafford. Allen. Cook. Williams. Nacua. The stars will be out in Los Angeles for this one.
The Rams entered Week 5 tied for the highest price in the Super Bowl LXI market on DraftKings Predictions at 14%, and Buffalo is a tick behind at 13%. One plays in the NFC, the other in the AFC. This is the only crack they get at each other before the game they are both priced for.
One of them is not playing like it. Matthew Stafford is fifth in the NFL in passing yards and tied for third in attempts, and the Rams are 19th in scoring. That is the season in one sentence. Los Angeles averaged 30.5 points a game a year ago on the way to a 12-5 finish and an NFC Championship Game appearance, and it averages 21.2 now. The point differential has collapsed from +172 to +2. Stafford’s six interceptions are tied for the second-most in football, and Puka Nacua, available for two of the four games, has fallen to 3% in the Offensive Player of the Year market. The volume is still there. The scoring is not.
Buffalo has had no such trouble. The Bills lead the NFL in scoring at 31.8 points per game, and Josh Allen has run for seven touchdowns — one more than he has thrown — which ties him for the league lead in points scored and has him second in the MVP market at 20%. James Cook III is third in rushing yards and second in yards per carry at 6.0. The Bills’ trouble is the other side of the ball. Buffalo ranks 25th in scoring defense at 26.8 points allowed, which is to say it has been outscoring teams rather than stopping them.
Monday is unfamiliar territory for both, in the literal sense. The Bills have played one road game all season, a 36-31 win at Houston in Week 1, and have been at newly-opened Highmark Stadium every week since. The Rams have played one game at SoFi, a 28-6 win over the Giants — their Week 1 home date against San Francisco was staged at Melbourne Cricket Ground, a 27-7 loss. On DraftKings Predictions, Los Angeles sits at 62% to win and Buffalo at 39%, with the under priced just above the over at 51% to 50%.
Game Lines Market
Pricing reflects market sentiment. Subject to change.
Game Stats
- Matthew Stafford is fifth in passing yards at 1,189 but 21st in passer rating at 80.5 and tied for second in interceptions with six
- Buffalo is 3-1 and leads the AFC East; Los Angeles is 2-2 and third in the NFC West
- The Bills lead the NFL in scoring at 31.8 points per game and rank 25th in scoring defense at 26.8
- The Rams are 19th in scoring at 21.2 points per game and ninth in scoring defense at 20.8
- Buffalo has played one road game all season, a 36-31 win at Houston; the Rams have played one game at SoFi Stadium, a 28-6 win over the Giants
- Bills games have averaged 58.5 total points this season; Rams games have averaged 42.0
- Josh Allen leads the NFL with seven rushing touchdowns, one more than he has thrown, and is tied for first in points scored with 42
- James Cook III is third in the NFL in rushing yards at 421 and second in yards per carry at 6.0
Bills vs. Rams: Last Five Meetings
Buffalo has won three of the last five, but the most recent one went to Los Angeles in an 86-point shootout at SoFi Stadium.
| Year | Where | Final Score | Passing Leader | Rushing Leader | Receiving Leader |
| 2024 | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA | Rams 44, Bills 42 | Josh Allen, BUF — 22/37, 342 yds, 3 TD | Kyren Williams, LA — 29 car, 87 yds, 2 TD | Puka Nacua, LA — 12 rec, 162 yds, 1 TD |
| 2022 | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA | Bills 31, Rams 10 | Josh Allen, BUF — 26/31, 297 yds, 3 TD | Josh Allen, BUF — 10 car, 56 yds, 1 TD | Cooper Kupp, LA — 13 rec, 128 yds, 1 TD |
| 2020 | Orchard Park, NY | Bills 35, Rams 32 | Jared Goff, LA — 23/32, 321 yds, 2 TD | Darrell Henderson, LA — 20 car, 114 yds, 1 TD | Cooper Kupp, LA — 9 rec, 107 yds, 1 TD |
| 2016 | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum | Bills 30, Rams 19 | Case Keenum, LA — 21/31, 271 yds, 0 TD | LeSean McCoy, BUF — 18 car, 150 yds, 0 TD | Kenny Britt, LA — 5 rec, 75 yds, 0 TD |
| 2012 | Orchard Park, NY | Rams 15, Bills 12 | Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF — 25/33, 247 yds, 1 TD | Steven Jackson, STL — 19 car, 64 yds, 1 TD | Brandon Gibson, STL — 6 rec, 100 yds, 1 TD |
Leaders reflect the top individual performance in each game regardless of team. Source: Sportradar NFL
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