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Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals prediction, pick for NFL Week 5 on Sunday 10/11/26

Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals prediction, pick for NFL Week 5 on Sunday 10/11/26

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By: Sam Connon

The Arizona Cardinals will host the Detroit Lions on Sunday, hoping to avoid a fourth consecutive loss. As for the Lions, they are already 0-2 on the road this season and need a win to keep pace in the cutthroat NFC North.

Detroit is a 5.5-point road favorite on Sunday at -265 moneyline odds, while Arizona has +215 moneyline odds. The game total is set at 54.5 points. Here is a preview of the Week 5 showdown featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Lions vs. Cardinals prediction, preview

Detroit was an overtime two-point conversation away from losing Week 1 against the Saints, plus it took a last-minute touchdown for them to beat the Jets in Week 3. So while 2-2 is a fine record, the Lions have been on edge pretty much all year long. For as dominant as the offense has been at times, they also fizzled out in a deciding four-and-out to close Week 4. Still, Detroit ranks fifth in estimated points added per play, as well as third in success rate, fourth in scoring, fifth in total offense and first when it comes to limiting turnovers. Jared Goff has yet to throw an interception in 2026, completing 67.7% of his passes for nine touchdowns, 303.5 yards per game and a 108.6 passer rating.

Jahmyr Gibbs is once again the engine of the Lions offense, leading the NFL in touches, rushing first downs and scrimmage touchdowns. He has found the end zone at least once every week this season, averaging 135.0 scrimmage yards per game. Amon-Ra St. Brown’s usage has been a little more sporadic, as he had only 19 yards in Week 3 and did not score a touchdown in Week 4. On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard has his unit allowing the most yards and second most points in the NFL. Safety Brian Branch is nearing his return from IR, meaning reinforcements are on the way, but he won’t be back in time for Week 5. So once again, Aidan Hutchinson and Jack Campbell will have a ton of pressure on their shoulders.

The Cardinals have had a volatile season, too, but haven’t won since upsetting the Chargers in Week 1. Veteran Jacoby Brissett, who had one pick through Week 3, just threw three interceptions against the Giants in Week 4. He went from a 103.1 passer rating in Week 1 to a 63.8 mark in Week 2, then a 98.2 in Week 3 and 55.2 in Week 4. So Brissett’s 67.8% completion percentage and 83.2 passer rating don’t exactly tell the whole story, given his boom-or-bust potential. He has leaned on wide receiver Michael Wilson and tight end Trey McBride pretty evenly – the former has 258 yards and a touchdown on 25 catches and 44 targets, while the latter has 242 yards and two scores on 33 receptions and 46 targets.

First round pick Jeremiyah Love has yet to truly break out, finishing with a sub-50% snap rate in three of his four appearances. He is only averaging 3.9 yards on his 66 touches, compared to Tyler Allgeier’s 3.5 averages across his 42 touches. Arizona’s defense, meanwhile, ranks No. 25 in both third down conversion rate and red zone scoring rate, leading to a scoring defense that ranks No. 29. Their best trait so far has been forcing turnovers, where they rank No. 6, but opposing quarterbacks’ 114.9 passer rating slots them in at No. 31 in that category.

Lions vs. Cardinals pick, best bet

The Cardinals have scored at least 24 points in three of their four games, only failing to do so against a Seahawks defense that ranks No. 2 in EPA allowed per play. Arizona has also allowed three of its four opponents to break 30 points, with the lone exception being a Chargers offense that ranks dead last in EPA per play. As for the Lions, they have scored at least 26 points and allowed at least 24 points in every game so far this season, boasting the No. 4 scoring offense and No. 31 scoring defense. Their defense ranks No. 31 in EPA allowed per play, while the Cardinals’ ranks No. 27.

Basically, we have a mediocre Arizona offense going against a dreadful Detroit defense, plus a stellar Lions offense facing a pretty poor Cardinals defense. That should add up to a lot of points on the board on Sunday, regardless of who comes out on top. All four of Detroit’s games this season have cleared 54.5 total points, as have each of Arizona’s last two.

Predicted Score: Lions 37, Cardinals 31

Best Bet: o54.5 (-115)

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Sam joined DraftKings in 2025 following five years with Sports Illustrated’s “On SI” network. He has covered the UCLA Bruins, New England Patriots, Tampa Bay Rays, MLB, MiLB and NBA, on top of earning awards from the Society of Professional Journalists and College Media Association during his time as a student at UCLA.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.