David Montgomery or Woody Marks Start or Sit Advice for Week 5
The Houston Texans slid to 0-4 with a close home loss to the Cowboys last week, and even though the team scored 30 points against Dallas, the running game continued to scuffle. Both David Montgomery and Woody Marks have had underwhelming performances this season, so can you start either one for your fantasy football team this week? Let’s take a look at what to expect from both Montgomery and Marks this week as the Texans try to get their first win of the season as they head to Tennessee to take on the Titans.
In Week 1, Montgomery started his Texans career with an impressive 28.9 FPTS, taking 20 carries for 60 yards and adding three catches for 19 more yards with a total of three touchdowns. Since then, though, he hasn’t been able to make much of an impact. He has totaled just 15.5 FPTS in his three games since then, finishing with a total behind Marks’ production in each of the last three weeks. He played 49% of the snaps in Week 1, 53% in Week 2, 63% in Week 3, and 56% in Week 4. Even though he has been getting more chances, he hasn’t been making the most of his chances.
Woody Marks has been playing fewer snaps than Montgomery since Week 1, but he has outscored him by getting into the end zone on short runs in the last two weeks and catching five passes when the Texans aired it out against the Bengals in Week 2. In Week 3 against the Colts and in Week 4 against the Cowboys, Marks got short-yardage touchdown chances and got into the end zone. In both games, he gave the team a late lead only to see the other team score late and win the game.
Since Week 1, Marks has clearly been the more explosive option in the backfield, and before last week’s game against Dallas, there were rumors that he was about to take over the larger part of the backfield timeshare. However, the split was still about 50/50, and Montgomery still got 10 carries (averaging 2.4 yards per carry), while Marks got six carries (averaging 3.7 yards per carry).
Since Week 1, Montgomery has managed only 2.5 yards per carry compared to 2.4 yards per carry for Marks, but the key difference has been the touchdown chances and the receiving opportunities.
Last season as a rookie, Marks took on the Titans in Week 4 and ran for 69 yards on 17 carries and caught four passes for 50 yards. He had a touchdown as a rusher and a receiver and looked ready to take over as the team’s full-time back. While that didn’t happen fully at any point last season, he did have a solid game against the Titans again in Tennessee in November. Could this season’s breakout for Marks be coming against the Titans again, just one week later than last year?
If Marks does get the majority of the work, he has RB2 upside and makes a solid FLEX play. However, it’s also possible the Texans continue to stick with Montgomery and eat into Marks’ ceiling. The uncertainty makes both backs high-risk starts this week despite a favorable matchup.
Running backs against the Titans have scored three touchdowns in four weeks while averaging 99.75 rushing yards and 26.25 receiving yards per game. Derrick Henry found the end zone against his former team last week, and the Titans’ defense will look to bounce back and lock down the Texans backfield tandem.
The Texans are desperate for a win, so if either back gets going early, they could get a heavy workload. Getting Nico Collins back did help the passing game and the overall offense last week, and things seem to be lining up for the Texans to get their first win of the season this week.
If possible, it’s still best to avoid this situation until the timeshare is tilted more firmly one way or the other, and the offensive line is playing better. The line problems are a big part of why neither back has been able to get going. If you are in a tight spot, though, and you have to start one or the other, I would still lean towards Marks, since he has more momentum and the potential to get more work.
While Montgomery is a little pricey at $5,800 in DFS contests, Marks remains an intriguing contrarian value play, especially with a low ownership expected, which could make him a differentiator in tournaments like the NFL $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st] this week. Marks is only $4,800, and there’s a better-than-zero chance that he’ll have a breakout game and get all the work against Tennessee, repeating his breakthrough from last season. He remains high-risk, but there is potential upside to consider as well.
