#9 Ole Miss (3-1, 1-1) has gone through an emotional roller coaster ride this season. After making a statement win vs. LSU, the Rebels fell short two weeks ago vs. Florida. Still, one letdown performance isn’t enough to knock Mississippi out of the postseason picture. A defeat against Vanderbilt (3-2, 0-2) however? That’s a whole different story. The Commodores are in the midst of a rebuild, handing over the offense to top recruit Jared Curtis. Can the freshman lead his squad to a massive upset this afternoon in Nashville?
The Rebels are listed as 9.5-point favorites over the Commodores, with the total set at O/U 55.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt Week 6 matchup.
Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt prediction, preview
As far as college football contenders go, Ole Miss is a difficult team to figure out. We’ve seen this group operate at a high level before, boosted by one of the nation’s most prolific scoring attacks. However, Week 4’s 52-28 defeat vs. Florida should serve as a massive wakeup call. Fortunately for the Rebels, star quarterback Trinidad Chambliss gives the team a chance at defeating just about anyone. Through four games, the senior has thrown for 1,222 yards and eight touchdowns while giving up three interceptions. He’s added four more scores with his legs as well.
With that being said, the biggest x-factor for Ole Miss is Kewan Lacy. The superstar running back has been battling injuries all season, sitting out during the Florida game. Following a three-week hiatus, it appears that the junior will be on the field this afternoon. Still, it remains to be seen how many touches he’ll get from head coach Pete Golding. Backup running backs Makhi Frazier and JT Lindsey haven’t made much of an impact so far. Vanderbilt’s defense isn’t a pushover by any means. Still, this isn’t the most overpowering group up front. Last weekend, Georgia churned out 176 rushing yards on 32 attempts (5.5 YPC). A similar approach from the Rebels wouldn’t come as a surprise. A season-ending injury to Aaron Bryant (knee) has left this Vandy defensive line somewhat vulnerable.
Don’t let their record fool you; the Commodores have enough talent to keep pace in this one. Curtis’ status is something to monitor prior to kickoff; he missed last week’s game vs. Georgia due to a bruised knee. However, he’s currently listed as probable for this Saturday’s matchup. The freshman has shown flashes of greatness, but Vandy fans are still waiting on a breakout performance. Through four games, he’s thrown for 746 yards and four touchdowns while coughing up three interceptions. He’ll need some support on the ground, which has proven hard to come by in Nashville. The Commodores are only averaging 3.68 yards per rush attempt, fourth-fewest in the SEC.
If there was ever a time for Vanderbilt’s offense to put up points, it’s this weekend. Ole Miss has surrendered a conference-worst 404.8 yards and 30.8 points per game to its opponents. Most troubling, Golding’s squad is giving up a whopping 7.9 yards per pass attempt and 4.64 yards per carry. Both marks rank last among all 16 SEC programs. In fairness, holding high-powered Louisville, LSU and Florida offenses in check isn’t easy. Still, even the biggest Rebels fan can admit this defense isn’t championship-caliber at the moment. An untested Curtis presents an opportunity for the visitors to bounce back, but the youngster was a five-star recruit for a reason.
Best Bet: Vanderbilt +10.5 (-137)
Vanderbilt is a much better team at FirstBank Stadium, winning nine straight home games dating back to last season. Ole Miss possesses plenty of firepower, but there are very real questions with this team right now. On offense, Lacy’s injury throws a wrench into what is typically an effective run game. As for the defense, it remains to be seen if they can slow down any SEC-caliber opponent. In front of their fans, expect Curtis and the Commodores to hang around on Saturday afternoon.
