East Carolina transfer Katin Houser has quickly found Collin Dixon in Barry Lunney Jr.’s offense, though Illinois still wastes too many drives within kicking range. Pat Fitzgerald’s first Michigan State team has slid further: the Spartans scored a miserable 26 points across three straight losses. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Michigan State Spartans and the Illinois Fighting Illini.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Michigan State vs. Illinois prediction, preview
Dixon caught an imposing 10 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown at Purdue. Joe Rossi can send safety help toward him, but Houser’s running demands another defender’s attention. He rescued a third-and-two with a 14-yard run against Purdue; Wisconsin’s Colton Joseph repeatedly punished the Spartans for chasing the wrong ballcarrier. Jordan Hall could steady those reads if he returns. He remains questionable, fellow linebacker Caleb Wheatland is out, and the remaining linebackers have to resist following the back when Houser holds the ball.
Ben Roberts can disrupt Illinois before those choices develop. He has penetrated against the run and pressured quarterbacks; Illinois guard Champ Smith is questionable. Aidan Laughery and Jordan Anderson also inherit more carries after Ca’Lil Valentine’s season-ending injury. At Purdue, Anderson lost two yards on third-and-three; Bret Bielema went for fourth-and-five, and Houser threw incomplete. A holding penalty later wiped out Ty Robinson’s 34-yard touchdown; a sack then ended that possession. Lunney should call quicker throws to Dixon when Roberts starts winning inside.
Nick Sheridan leaned on short throws at Wisconsin, and his receivers gained little after catching them. Alessio Milivojevic scraped together a miserable 103 passing yards on 32 attempts. Protection failures have spoiled longer throws. After losing Cam Edwards for the season, Jaziun Patterson and Marvis Parrish each averaged less than 3.5 yards per carry there. Cam Fancher left Wisconsin with a leg injury; his questionable status threatens the change-of-pace quarterback package. After Bobby Hauck retired four games into the season, Roger Cooper narrowed Illinois’ calls within their existing 3–3–5 defense. Illinois allowed an encouraging 90 rushing yards against Purdue in his first game.
Illinois vs. Michigan State pick, best bet
Milivojevic can attack the missed coverages that survived Cooper’s changes. Purdue still gained 255 passing yards against Illinois, including a 61-yard catch through broken coverage. Illinois has managed only three sacks through five games, so Sheridan should seek Rodney Bullard Jr. deeper when the pocket holds. Cooper needs safety help over Bullard; moving that defender forward to stop Patterson would invite a deeper throw.
I expect those coverage errors to cost Illinois two touchdowns, one as Michigan State chases late. Liam Boyd should finish two other drives when Milivojevic’s shorter throws stall; he has made all eight attempts from 30–49 yards this season. Dixon and Laughery should help Illinois finish three drives with touchdowns. Roberts can hurry Houser on other possessions, with Ethan Moczulski kicking twice. I’ll lay 2.5 at -120.
Best bet: Illinois -2.5 (-120).
Projected score: Illinois 27, Michigan State 20.
Best Bet: Illinois -1.5 (-120) at Michigan State
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