Casey Woods nearly brought Missouri State home from SMU with an upset. A pick-six helped the Bears lead early in the fourth quarter before two late touchdowns dropped them to 1–3. Tyson Helton returns Western Kentucky to Bowling Green at 1–4, still trying to make an offense behind a rebuilt line finish what the receivers start. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and the Missouri State Bears.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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WKU vs. Missouri State prediction, preview
Skyler Locklear can hurt WKU downfield. He threw for 309 yards on 28 attempts against Marshall, with Isaiah Myers catching seven passes for 141 yards. Mark Cala brought Locklear from UTEP to run this offense. SMU sacked Locklear seven times; he managed a meager 5.4 yards per attempt before leaving hurt. Locklear has practiced all week and remains the starter, Woods says. WKU has only four sacks through five games; I expect him to get more time to throw.
Cala should give Breezy Dubar more carries, too. Having averaged 5.2 yards per rush this season, the Boise State transfer gets to run against a front allowing 6.22, worst in the FBS. Missouri State starts three transfers up front; Dubar can spare them some obvious passing downs by gaining yards early. WKU’s safeties may have to step forward to help tackle him. If they crowd Dubar, Locklear can throw behind them to Myers, whose catches have averaged 20.1 yards this season. WKU has allowed touchdowns on 16 of 19 red-zone visits. I expect the Bears to finish three drives there.
Rodney Tisdale Jr. kept going back to Jonathan Stafford Jr. The freshman caught ten passes for 108 yards at New Mexico State and turned a short middle throw into 36 yards on third-and-nine. Tisdale averaged a healthy 7.9 yards per attempt, but New Mexico State sacked him six times. A holding penalty helped undo Stafford’s long gain, and New Mexico State sacked Tisdale on fourth down to end that drive. They ended the next one the same way. Helton returned just one starting lineman.
Missouri State vs. WKU pick, best bet
Missouri State will struggle to punish those blockers as often. The Bears have six sacks through four games and just allowed SMU to throw for 464 yards. Bodie Reeder should get the ball to Stafford on those shorter throws again. Tisdale can release it sooner and make the Bears chase Stafford after the catch. Ajay Allen has to help him stay ahead of the chains, though. Allen managed just 17 yards on nine carries Thursday, leaving Tisdale to repair too many possessions by throwing.
Stafford should help Tisdale earn three touchdowns; I expect Karl Campbell to add a field goal. But Allen’s failed runs and poor protection should leave WKU punting on other drives. Dubar and Myers should answer with three Missouri State touchdowns. The Bears have converted only 31.4% of third downs this season, so Locklear still needs to rescue drives when Dubar can’t gain ground. I expect two field goals beyond those touchdowns. I’ll take under 56.5 on a 27–24 game.
Best bet: Under 56.5 (-110).
Projected score: Missouri State 27, Western Kentucky 24.
Best Bet: WKU vs. Missouri State u56.5 total points scored (-110)
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