The UTSA Roadrunners will play host to the South Florida Bulls on Thursday, looking to improve to 5-1 and cement themselves as contenders in the American Conference. USF and first-year coach Brian Hartline, meanwhile, are trying to get back on track after a home loss to Temple.
UTSA is a 6.5-point home favorite on Thursday at -250 moneyline odds, while USF has +205 moneyline odds. The game total is set at 49.5 points. Here is a preview of the Week 6 showdown featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
South Florida Bulls vs. UTSA Roadrunners Preview
South Florida
The Bulls opened the season by eking out a 19-9 win over FIU, which set them up for a 28-24 victory at Army. After returning home to pummel Delaware State – an FCS opponent – 59-17, USF beat Bowling Green 14-6 in Ohio. Last week, though, Temple came to Tampa and scored a go-ahead touchdown with 3:08 left. South Florida turned it over on downs an fumbled on their two chances to pull back ahead, ultimately losing 17-13.
Former Mississippi State and LSU quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. put up big numbers against Army and Delaware State, but has posted passer ratings under 108.0 in his other three starts. Through five outings, Van Buren is averaging 179.2 passing yards and 28.4 rushing yards per game – excluding his nine sacks for 62 yards – with three passing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns and no interceptions. He is completing 62.6% of his passes with a 131.8 passer rating. Wideouts Bryson Rodgers and Joshua Porter each have exactly 240 yards this season, combining to account for all three of Van Buren’s scores.
D.J. Crowther is the Bulls’ workhorse in the backfield, averaging 91.0 yards from scrimmage on 15.8 touches per game to go along with his six touchdowns. He has support from Jason Collins Jr. with his one touchdown on 7.8 touches and 35.6 scrimmage yards per game.
Defensively, USF ranks No. 45 in opponent passer rating. The 1.2 turnovers per game they are forcing put them in the bottom half of FBS, but their plus-two turnover margin is tied for No. 47 in the country.
South Florida dropped 11 spots in the SP+ rankings to No. 66 this past week, boasting a pretty balanced profile when it comes to opponent-adjusted efficiency. The Bulls rank No. 58 on offense, No. 71 on special teams and No. 74 on offense.
UTSA
Coach Jeff Traylor has his Roadrunners well on their way to a seventh consecutive season of bowl eligibility, even if they haven’t had many comfortable wins since beating an FCS opponent in UTRGV 45-16 to open the year. It took a last-second touchdown to beat Texas State 31-26 on the road, which led into a 30-6 beatdown at the hands of Texas. UTSA recovered with a 59-45 shootout victory over Colorado State before going on the road to beat Rice in a 16-14 slog.
Third-year starter Owen McCown is already over 1,000 yards passing on the season. But while his 68.2% completion percentage is his best as a starter, McCown’s 9.8 yards per completion, 7.02 adjusted yards per attempt and 137.0 passer rating are all worse than his 2024 and 2025 marks. The rushing abilities McCown flashed in 2024 are also missing as well, even though he is taking fewer than one sack per game. McCown has pretty evenly leaned on four receivers – DJ Allen, Mekhi Anderson, DJ Wilson and David Amador II – all of whom are between 16 and 20 catches with between 147 and 269 yards and at least one touchdown. Brandon Young Jr. has been the most impactful tight end with two touchdowns thus far, but he is almost exclusively used as a red zone option.
UTSA has the benefit of a real three-headed monster in the backfield, led by Will Henderson III’s 398 yards and three touchdowns on 65 carries. The redshirt sophomore, who fell 2 yards shy of the 1,000-yard threshold from scrimmage last season, is averaging 101.5 scrimmage yards per game when excluding the Texas loss. Brandon High and A’Marion Peterson are both over 200 scrimmage yards this season and have found the end zone two and four times, respectively. Combined, the three running backs average 181.0 yards and nearly two touchdowns from scrimmage per game.
The linebacker quintet of Darion White, Owen Pewee, James Walley Jr., Cameron Cooper and Brandon Tucker Jr. have 14.0 tackles for loss between them, but the Roadrunners’ defense is actually tied for No. 87 in the nation in that category due to a lackluster interior line. Their run defense gives up 199.4 yards per game, which is good for the the ninth-worst mark in FBS. UTSA owns the No. 98 scoring defense and No. 118 total defense, all while their No. 63 ranking in yards allowed per play puts them more so in the middle of the pack.
UTSA came in at No. 74 in the latest SP+ rankings, slotting in at No. 67 on offense, No. 83 on defense and No. 80 on special teams.
South Florida Bulls vs. UTSA Roadrunners Pick, Best Bet
The Roadrunners are 3-2 against the spread this season after starting 3-0, while the Bulls are 2-3. In what is likely to be a pretty even matchup – with the slight edge going to UTSA as the home team – it’s hard to make a concrete pick when it comes to the 6.5-point spread.
I like the points total a lot better, especially looking at how USF and UTSA have matched up since becoming conference foes back in 2023. The Roadrunners took the first matchup between the two, winning 49-21 in 2023, before the Bulls got their revenge with a 55-23 beatdown in 2025. These are different teams, yes, but it’s hard to look past 70 and 78 points when Thursday’s line is sitting at 49.5. UTSA has had three games clear Thursday night’s total points line compared to USF’s two, but the Roadrunners have had 12 straight games at the Alamodome go over 50.5 points. Both teams lean towards offense analytically speaking, so I can really see another shootout coming together Thursday night in San Antonio.
