These are my picks to win every Week 5 NFL game straight-up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier.
You can bet on any of these games on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 5 Picks and Predictions: Straight-Up Picks with Confidence Levels
High Confidence
Cowboys over Buccaneers
The Cowboys are the biggest favorite of the week and face Tampa Bay on Thursday Night Football. Dallas picked up a big road win last week against the Texans. They have proven to have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season. Dallas ranks inside the top four in both offensive EPA/play and offensive success rate. They should simply score too much for rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels to keep up.
Texans over Titans
The Texans are 0-4 and in absolute desperation mode. They have played a brutal schedule so far and now have a very favorable matchup against the 0-4 Titans. The Houston defense should step up and win this game.
Bengals over Dolphins
The Dolphins are 0-4 and rank 31st in offensive success rate this season. They have really struggled offensively and should not be able to keep up with the Bengals.
Jaguars over Eagles
The Jaguars are headed to their second home in London. The Jacksonville offense has been great so far this season. Meanwhile, the Eagles have massively struggled on offense so far this season. They will now have to play without their franchise cornerstone, Lane Johnson, for the rest of the season as well. The Jaguars should get the win here.
Lions over Cardinals
The Lions’ offense has been great, but the defense has real issues. The Cardinals don’t have the offensive firepower to really push the Lions to the brink. Detroit is in need of a bounceback win and should get it here.
Medium Confidence
Falcons over Ravens
The Falcons have the best offense in the NFL since Michael Penix Jr. returned at quarterback. Penix has unlocked Drake London, and the real passing game has allowed Bijan Robinson to run wild on the ground. They are now home favorites on Sunday Night Football against the Ravens, who are likely to be without Lamar Jackson. The Falcons have one of the top run defenses in the NFL and should slow down Derrick Henry. For the Ravens to win, Tyler Huntley will need to throw downfield, something he hasn’t proven he can do well in the NFL.
Broncos over Chargers
The Broncos have played a very tough schedule so far, playing the 49ers, Rams, Chiefs and Jaguars already this season. Denver now gets to play the 0-4 Chargers. It won’t be easy on the road against a divisional opponent, but they should get the win.
Patriots over Raiders
The Patriots finally looked more like the defending AFC champions should look last week. They got a much-needed win over the Bills and can keep the momentum going at home against the Raiders. The Las Vegas offense has played well so far, but the defense has struggled the past couple of weeks. This will be their toughest road test of the season, and New England should find a way to win.
Commanders over Giants
The Giants are 3-1 and in solo first place in the NFC East. However, they have needed goal-line stands to beat the Titans and the Cardinals at home the past two weeks. They now face a tough divisional road test. Jayden Daniels is expected to return for this game. If he does, the Commanders should considerably improve on offense and get the win.
Seahawks over 49ers
The Seahawks have hit a bit of an up-and-down season so far. The offense has looked sharp, but the defense has really struggled the past two weeks. It will be a tough test for the Seattle defense against the 49ers this week. However, expect Seattle to step up and get a big win at home.
Coin-Flip Games
Rams over Bills
This is a potential Super Bowl preview between the Rams and the Bills. The Rams have a big advantage, with the Bills having to travel across the country for this game. The Los Angeles offense should look good against a vulnerable Buffalo defense and get the win.
Jets over Browns
The Browns have looked good the past two weeks, but still have some real issues. The Jets rank 13th in offensive EPA/play, while the Browns rank 16th. The Browns rank 17th in defensive EPA/play, while the Jets rank 18th. These teams are almost identical statistically, so I’ll give the home team the advantage in a coin-flip game.
Packers over Bears
The Bears and Packers are facing off in a pivotal NFC North battle. Green Bay has a massive home-field advantage, which should be the biggest difference in this game. The Packers are 81-48-1 (62.8%) at home under Matt LaFleur and should get this big win against the Bears.
Colts over Steelers
The Colts should control this game on the ground. They lead the NFL in offensive EPA/rush, while the Steelers rank 20th in defensive EPA/rush. That should be the difference in this game.
Saints over Vikings
This is a true coin-flip game. The Saints’ biggest weakness has been their run defense, but that is not a huge fear against the Vikings. This should be a lower-scoring game between two decent teams, where the little things should decide the game. The home-field advantage is why I’ll give the Saints a small edge.
