Sam Houston reached Tulsa’s five with a chance to win. Three incompletions and a sack ended that afternoon. Phil Longo brings the Bearkats to Lynchburg at 1–3 after a bye, trying to turn better passing into victories. Liberty has won four straight, equaling last season’s four wins. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Liberty Flames and the Sam Houston Bearkats.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Liberty vs. Sam Houston prediction, preview
Landyn Locke has given Longo reason to keep throwing. He passed for 335 yards on 46 attempts at Troy and 316 against Tulsa, keeping both losses competitive. After an ACL recovery disrupted his freshman preparation, Locke spent the offseason learning Longo’s Air Raid. Grady O’Neill gives him an experienced target inside, with Chris Reed and Tim Burns available deeper. Burns caught a 52-yard touchdown at Texas Tech as Sam Houston pulled within a touchdown before halftime. I expect Longo to use O’Neill early, then let Locke take his chances downfield if Liberty’s defenders begin closing on those shorter throws.
Liberty’s coverage should slow Locke down. Texas Tech held Locke to a meager 5.3 yards per attempt despite that long touchdown, and the Flames have allowed only 5.9 yards per attempt this season. Delaware’s injured starter Nick Minicucci missed their latest game, though; I’m expecting more from Locke than those replacement quarterbacks managed. He needs help from Alton McCaskill. Behind four new starting linemen, Sam Houston has rushed for a miserable 38, 55 and 74 yards in their three FBS games. Shawn Quinn can keep defenders in coverage if McCaskill doesn’t draw them forward. Locke then has to throw through that help on third down.
Jamey Chadwell, now calling plays himself, has far fewer worries handing the ball off. Florida State transfer Kam Davis ran for 166 rushing yards at Coastal Carolina and 147 at Delaware. Davis broke a 56-yard run in each game; Liberty also kept the ball for more than 38 minutes at Delaware. I’d keep Davis and Peyton Jones running at Sam Houston’s front, which conceded 219 rushing yards at Texas Tech. Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay may need his safeties to help tackle them. Deshawn Purdie can throw deeper to Makai Jackson, who has caught a pass of at least 50 yards in all four Liberty wins.
Sam Houston vs. Liberty pick, best bet
That’s how Liberty could score well beyond my forecast. But Ishmel Atkins has broken up five passes through four games, helping Sam Houston allow a stingy 5.3 yards per attempt. Aughtry-Lindsay has reason to trust his coverage. NC State transfer Elijah Groves gets to rush a line that has conceded 11 sacks through five games. I expect Groves to end some drives.
Liberty settled for field goals on their first two drives at Delaware, one after Jackson’s 50-yard catch. They have finished just 11 of 21 red-zone visits with touchdowns. I expect three touchdowns and three kicks. Chase Reeves has made all nine field-goal attempts. Locke should earn two touchdowns and another drive for Sam Carpenter to finish with a field goal, but McCaskill’s stalled runs should force punts. I get 47 points.
Best bet: Under 52.5 (-110).
Projected score: Liberty 30, Sam Houston 17.
Best Bet: Liberty vs. Sam Houston u52.5 total points scored (-110)
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