Major Applewhite is sticking with Jared Hollins. Bishop Davenport is healthy again, but Hollins keeps the job after throwing South Alabama past ULM. The Jaguars arrive in Jonesboro at 3–2; Butch Jones’ 2–3 Red Wolves just surrendered a fourth-quarter lead at Louisiana. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Arkansas State Red Wolves and the South Alabama Jaguars.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Arkansas State vs. South Alabama prediction, preview
Applewhite can keep running at Jones’ depleted front. PJ Martin, Keenan Phillips and Trae’von Dunbar helped South Alabama rush for 249 yards against ULM, recovering from a miserable 88 at Kentucky. Arkansas State has allowed 5.1 yards per carry through five games, and Jones lamented missed assignments and poor tackling Monday. Defensive lineman Sultan Badmus misses another game, with linebacker Tre Stevens questionable. Martin and Phillips can keep Hollins ahead of the chains; Dunbar has averaged a lively 5.7 yards per rush this season and just broke a 32-yard touchdown run.
Hollins finally found his deep receivers Saturday. He needed just 19 attempts to gain 321 yards, finding Brendan Jenkins for a 72-yard touchdown and Anthony Eager for scores of 35 and 69 yards. Eager had spent spring and camp dealing with wrist injuries. Applewhite can keep sending him deep, especially if Jones pulls a safety toward the backs. South Alabama returned only one starting lineman, tackle Ethan Hubbard, so I’m still wary of asking Hollins to wait on those routes. Arkansas State has produced only three sacks through five games. Jones needs much more from his rush to disrupt this offense.
After a dreadful four-interception debut at Memphis, Texas transfer Trey Owens has gone four games without throwing another. At Louisiana, Chauncy Cobb gained 29 and 14 yards on catches during the fourth-quarter touchdown drive. Owens still averaged a modest 6.6 yards per attempt. New coordinator Garrett Altman should keep throwing to Cobb underneath; South Alabama just allowed ULM to throw for 355 yards, and defensive coordinator Todd Orlando emphasized tackling Monday. Solomon Baggett can make Orlando’s defenders work on early downs, too. They’ve surrendered an alarming 6.2 yards per rush through five games. Kenyon Clay remains questionable after missing Louisiana; Baggett’s carries matter more if Altman loses that backfield help again.
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State pick, best bet
Cobb could swing this game on a kickoff. South Alabama kicked out of bounds twice Saturday, and Cobb returned one 82 yards at Louisiana. But Arkansas State wasted that trip to the 18. Backup quarterback Drew Dickey lost two yards on third down, and Clune Van Andel kicked a field goal. The Red Wolves have finished just eight of 14 red-zone visits with touchdowns this season. I expect Owens and Baggett to get them three, with Van Andel adding three kicks. Hollins should throw two touchdowns, with Martin and Phillips finishing two more on the ground. Eager still dropped a red-zone pass Saturday; misses on early downs should force punts, and I expect Davis Little to finish two other drives with field goals. I’ll take South Alabama to win at even money.
Best bet: South Alabama ML (+100).
Projected score: South Alabama 34, Arkansas State 30.
Best Bet: South Alabama (+100) vs. Arkansas State
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