We’re locked and loaded for a banger Game 2 between the New York Liberty and the Atlanta Dream. With a spot in the WNBA Finals on the line, these two star-studded teams collide again after the Dream’s rousing Game 1 win. Can Atlanta defend home court to take a 2-0 lead in the series, or will the Liberty fight back before the series heads to New York?
The Dream enter as 1.5-point home favorites with -125 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Liberty are +105 underdogs, with the game total set at 170.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Liberty-Dream matchup.
Liberty vs. Dream Preview
Game 1 was a familiar story for the Liberty. Their stars came to play offensively: Breanna Stewart scored 19 points in 40 minutes, and Sabrina Ionescu racked up 27 points on 10-of-20 shooting. Jonquel Jones did her part while shouldering a heavy defensive load. But the rest of the roster let them down, as New York’s bench scored only six points on 1-of-9 shooting.
The biggest problem was the defense, as usual. New York asks far too much of Jones and Stewart defensively, putting heavy pressure on Leonie Fiebich and rookie Pauline Astier to hold things up at the point of attack. That was a major problem in Game 1, as Jordin Canada blew up for 25 points to lead Atlanta in scoring. Despite rough shooting nights from Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray (combined 23 points on 6/25 shooting), the Dream offense was able to put together a strong performance.
DeWanna Bonner’s influence all over Game 1. With Gray struggling early and leaving due to injury, the veteran stepped up in what might be her last few WNBA games. She scored 23 points off the bench on 10-of-18 shooting and added nine rebounds. That ability to step into increased usage in Gray’s absence saved Atlanta’s skin; with such a young team on the floor, you need a vet like Bonner to push their talent in the right direction when playoff pressure gets high.
Gray’s absence will surely have a lot of sway over Game 2. Atlanta’s best perimeter shooter has been ruled out with a finger injury, leaving head coach Karl Smesko with a tough lineup problem. Will he slide promising rookie Isobel Borlase into the starting lineup for a pinch of shooting? Or will he opt for Te-Hina PaoPao for a defensive splash? He could get wild and slide Bonner into the lineup, creating a jumbo team with Rhyne Howard playing the two-guard. There are a lot of ways to attack this for Atlanta.
New York wants better bench production, but the reality is that the stars have to carry this offense, as they have all season long. Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones can create mismatches and capitalize on them, which can be devastating against a defense like Atlanta’s. The key is getting things away from Angel Reese, who dominated them in Game 1 with four steals and three blocks. Taking the DPOY out of the game is easier said than done, but who said the playoffs are easy?
Jonquel Jones is the real X-factor of this game. Her rim protection will be vital against Rhyne Howard, the most frequent driver in the W. If she can affect some shots, fight hard with Reese for rebounds, and knock down some key threes, the Liberty have to feel good about their upset chances tonight.
Now that we know these two teams a bit better, who will take home the win?
Liberty vs. Dream Pick, Best Bet
Allisha Gray’s absence is going to be a serious problem for the Dream. They struggled to keep pace with New York’s stars in Game 1 without her, and it’s going to be the same story in Game 2. Too much Rhyne Howard offensively can be a problem for Atlanta, and that problem is exacerbated with Gray sidelined. I’ll take the value on the road dogs to even up the series.
