This is the last great baseball day of the season, folks. Don’t get me wrong, the League Championship Series are fun and the World Series is an event, but we’ve got four elimination games back-to-back-to-back-to-back on Wednesday. This is what it’s all about.
Here are my two home runs picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook for these Division Series tilts: Spencer Jones and Angel Martinez.
Let’s break them down.
MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Jones | +570 | Jones was robbed by a catwalk in Game 2, but tonight he gets the short porch in Yankee Stadium. He also gets Nick Martinez. The RHP might be a soft contact savant, but his second percentile whiff rate (17.4%) almost guarantees that Jones will be producing a few batted ball events — not always the case for the 25-year-old with a 36.3% strikeout rate. Jones possesses a 55.1% hard hit rate and a massive .489 expected wOBA on BBEs. |
| Angel Martinez | +900 | I like the switch-hitting aspect of Martinez’s game in what should be another bullpen-heavy pitching script for the White Sox. Martinez’s .211 ISO led all Guardians hitters in 2026 and the 24-year-old was on fire to finish out the regular season. In fact, in August and September, Martinez slashed .310/.346/.559 with a 152 wRC+. He may not be a household name, but he can mash. |
In-depth analysis below.
MLB Home Run Props Analysis
Spencer Jones 1+ Home Run (+570)
I’m getting a Spencer Jones home run before this series is over. Mark my words. In Game 2, my Jones ticket seems like it was the victim of the catwalks at Tropicana Field, as the rookie outfielder crushed a ball with a 106.4 mph exit velocity, that somehow then ended up in glove in shallow centerfield. No matter. We’re back to the well in Game 3 in a matchup that really favors Jones’ strengths. Nick Martinez might be a soft contact savant, but his second percentile whiff rate (17.4%) almost guarantees that Jones will be producing a few batted ball events this evening — not always the case for the 25-year-old with a 36.3% strikeout rate. Jones possesses a 55.1% hard hit rate and a massive .489 expected wOBA on BBEs. Nothing “soft” applies to his approach. Meanwhile, Martinez won’t have Tampa’s home field quirks to assist him, as he’ll instead be pitching in front of Yankee Stadium’s short porch.
Angel Martinez 1+ Home Run (+900)
Sean Newcomb will start this game for the White Sox, which should give Angel Martinez at least one at-bat against a left-handed opponent. In a perfect world, that’s when you want to be backing the 24-year-old in this market, as Martinez posted a .221 ISO and a 45.9% hard hit rate versus southpaws during the regular season. However, Martinez is a switch-hitter. While it’s not his preferred side, the outfielder did hit 11 long balls as an LHB in 2026. So, in what might amount to a very complex bullpen game for Chicago, Martinez will never be in a disadvantageous handedness matchup. Let’s not sell the guy short, either. There’s an argument to be made that Martinez was Cleveland’s best hitter down the stretch. In fact, in August and September, Martinez slashed .310/.346/.559 with a 152 wRC+. He may not be a household name, but he can mash.
