The WNBA playoffs are giving us the heavyweight matchups we deserve. Las Vegas, the defending champions, are getting a real test in their quest for a repeat title. The Golden State Valkyries own the league’s best defense and threw the first punch by winning Game 1 of this best-of-five series. Can the Aces tie the series before heading to the desert? Or will the upstart Valkyries make it 2-0 with Ballhalla at their backs?
The Valkyries enter as 1.5-point home favorites with -125 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Aces are +105 underdogs, with the game total set at 157.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Aces-Valkyries matchup.
Aces vs. Valkyries Preview
Game 1 was about as Valkyries as Valkyries games get. Their swarming defense held the Aces to a season-low 60 points, as their star-studded team shot only 34% from the field as a unit. On top of forcing misses, Golden State dominated on the glass, out-rebounding Las Vegas 52-25. That allowed them to grind out the game despite a lackluster showing from their offense; that is, everyone other than Gabby Williams.
That dominant two-way showing from their All-Star wing was key to the win, as Golden State struggled to find other consistent sources of offense. Given her playoff history against the Aces, that one had to feel good.
But the real key was their depth. Incredibly, none of the 10 Valkyries who stepped on the floor in Game 1 had a negative +/-. Las Vegas’ stars—A’ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, and Jackie Young—scored 51 of their 60 total points. An early injury to Jewell Loyd didn’t help, but Las Vegas’ lack of scoring depth has been an issue all season. Golden State’s 27 bench points decided the game and put them ahead in the series.
A major point in Game 1 was the Kaitlyn Chen-Kierstan Bell matchup. Golden State’s lead bench guard often matched up with Bell and hardly hesitated to pull the trigger; only Williams attempted more field goals in Game 1 for the Valks. Las Vegas has to do a better job of avoiding those matchups for Bell and sending early help to deter Chen’s drives. Against a team that struggles so mightily to create looks at the rim, you can’t afford to hand them free drives.
Las Vegas could sure use some help from their bench, but a lot of that has to come from the stars. Wilson, Gray, and Young combined for only eight assists as Golden State’s passing-suppression style worked to a T. In an ideal world, the Valkyries will funnel the ball to the stars and keep the role players uninvolved, simplifying their help schemes. Las Vegas needs to find a way to break that, or the Valkyries will set the tempo again.
Now that we know these two teams a bit better, who will take home the win?
Aces vs. Valkyries Pick, Best Bet
It’s very unusual to see the Las Vegas Aces on the back foot for such a large chunk of a game, but the Valkyries came prepared to mess them up. It’s easy to say the champs will bounce back with the rubber band effect—but that ignores how elite Golden State’s system was in Game 1. I believe that the Valkyries, one of the best home teams in the league, will find a way to defend their turf once again.
