Well, it’s been a trying international break for Manchester City fans. The years-long investigation into alleged financial misdeeds by the team has come to a head, and the club has been found guilty on 114 of 115 charges. In damning statements from the Football Association and the Premier League, the club reported nearly a billion dollars in inflated revenue, breaking the cardinal rules of financial fair play. With unprecedented penalties on the horizon, is it time to consider Man City being relegated because of a colossal points deduction?
Here’s a look at the current relegation odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook:
Coventry, Hull City, and Ipswich — the three sides promoted from the Championship this season — lead the clubhouse in relegation odds. But Manchester City, with looming sanctions, are right behind them. The threat of historic punishment makes their future awfully difficult to predict, so here’s what you need to know when considering these relegation odds.
First, here’s a brief history of Financial Fair Play (FFP) deductions. Everton were the first club to lose points due to FFP breaches. In November 2023, the Premier League slapped the Toffees with a ten-point deduction, the biggest in league history. Losses incurred during 2022 raised questions from other clubs, and though Everton won an appeal, they still ended up with a six-point deduction applied that season.
Nottingham Forest became the second club to lose points due to FFP, being docked four points in March 2024. They were reported to be $45.7 million over their spending limit, which is certainly a lot of money, but it pales in comparison to Man City’s alleged violations. That process was over rather quickly.
It’s also worth noting how quickly these investigations finished. Everton’s investigation, punishment, and appeal took just over a year; Forest’s process was wrapped up in much less time. For context, Manchester City’s investigation began in December 2018 and took almost eight years to conclude.
The odds of City’s relegation and the length of the investigation show us that we are in uncharted waters. If point deductions are part of their punishment, it’s likely to be much, much more severe than the points docked from Everton and Forest. It’s also no guarantee a definite punishment will be handed down before the end of the season — without a points deduction, there is a snowball’s chance in hell of City earning an honest relegation. It’s possible that their army of lawyers, who did an excellent job delaying the investigation, could find a way to drag things out into next season.
I don’t like dealing in uncertainty here. Betting on City to be relegated this year assumes a colossal points deduction done promptly, and neither is guaranteed. I’m staying away from this one.
