Torrance Burgess Jr. needed only nine carries to rush for 140 yards against Incarnate Word. The FCS opponent requires a substantial adjustment, but Burgess had already run for 149 yards on 17 carries against UTSA. I’d happily ask him to test another defense after that work, particularly one that just conceded 41 points to Toledo. San Diego State will have to tackle him promptly; a missed fit can become a long pursuit. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the San Diego State Aztecs and the Texas State Bobcats.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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SDSU vs. Texas State prediction, preview
Brad Jackson can attack through the air around that rushing threat. Texas State scored 63 against Incarnate Word, though a punt-return touchdown contributed to the rout and belongs outside any estimate of ordinary offensive scoring. I’m projecting 38 here, a considerable reduction that still reflects how quickly the Bobcats can move when the running game establishes favorable downs. San Diego State just lost 41-16 to Toledo, and their defense faces another offense capable of sustaining pressure after the opening possessions.
The Aztecs’ availability report makes their response more complicated. Nine players are listed out and eight doubtful; the larger total of 32 listed players also includes questionable and probable designations. Calling all 32 unavailable would exaggerate the problem. The confirmed absences are consequential enough, particularly running back Lucky Sutton and guard Michael Leville Watkins. Javion Kinnard is doubtful, creating further uncertainty in a backfield already missing an important runner.
Those losses connect directly to San Diego State’s ability to keep pace. Their replacement backs will have to work behind a reshuffled line, and the Aztecs also have extensive tight-end availability concerns. Sustaining the run could require changing both personnel and blocking assignments. I still have San Diego State reaching 24 points because Texas State conceded 35 to North Texas. The Bobcats have given opponents real scoring opportunities, and a large favorite’s price should account for that generosity.
Texas State vs. SDSU pick, best bet
This is also a substantial trip for Texas State, with a late kickoff and the unfamiliarity of an opening Pac-12 conference game. San Diego State will have the more familiar surroundings, though their 0-4 ATS start offers little reassurance that home field alone will settle the problems. The market has already reacted to the availability news, pushing the Bobcats beyond the cheaper numbers available earlier. At -8.5, we need a fairly decisive advantage to remain after that adjustment.
I think Texas State have one through Burgess and Jackson, particularly if San Diego State cannot sustain enough rushing possessions to keep them off the field. I’ll lay the points and project a 38-24 win. I’ve left room for a late Aztecs touchdown in that forecast; Texas State’s defense has earned the allowance. Burgess and Jackson can create the separation earlier, while San Diego State’s replacement backs and blockers try to assemble sustained possessions together. That’s a difficult amount of offensive reconstruction to ask for in one week.
Best bet: Texas State -8.5 (-108)
Projected score: Texas State 38, San Diego State 24
Best Bet: Texas State -8.5 (-110) at SDSU
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