CJ Bailey should find opportunities against a Louisville secondary that has already conceded four gains of at least 60 yards. NC State have produced only one pass of 30-plus yards against FBS opponents, so I’d keep any expectations of an immediate barrage in check. Bailey can begin with the shorter completions he handles well. The possibility of a larger gain becomes more interesting once Louisville’s defenders start reacting to those throws and moving toward the line. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the NC State Wolfpack and the Louisville Cardinals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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NC State vs. Louisville prediction, preview
Bad protection could make that patience impossible. NC State will play without center Spike Sowells, shifting Teague Andersen inside, and tackle Jimarion McCrimon is questionable. That’s considerable movement along the line before a conference game. Louisville can attack the edges and try to hurry Bailey through his reads. My projection includes some stalled possessions from that pressure; the Wolfpack’s receiving opportunities only matter when their quarterback has time to locate them and set his feet.
Louisville have personnel problems of their own in the secondary. Nickel defender Antonio Watts is out for the season, and safety Koen Entringer remains questionable after missing last week’s game. Replacing experience in the middle of a secondary complicates communication, especially when receivers change the spacing after the snap. NC State should test those replacements with crossing routes and intermediate throws. I’d like Bailey to force Louisville’s defenders to make repeated decisions before asking him to chase the longest completion on the field.
Louisville should move the ball as well. The Cardinals have averaged roughly ten yards per pass attempt, a dangerous level of efficiency, and Lawayne McCoy has turned 15 catches into 301 yards and three touchdowns. His questionable status, alongside Lincoln Kienholz’s, makes the final availability report unusually consequential. McCoy’s twenty-yard receiving average is difficult to overlook, so my forecast allows for Louisville to remain dangerous through the air if he plays. NC State will need to tackle promptly after completions and avoid turning routine gains into another succession of long scoring plays.
Louisville vs. NC State pick, best bet
Louisville arrive after a 30-27 loss to Wake Forest, with their 3-1 ATS record still comfortably ahead of NC State’s 1-3. I’d be cautious about treating the Wolfpack as an overlooked team on that evidence. Bailey’s matchup at home is the attraction: Louisville’s defensive injuries create opportunities that NC State have seldom enjoyed against FBS opposition so far.
I’ll take NC State +3 and project a 31-30 win. The offensive-line changes keep my confidence measured, and Louisville’s passing efficiency should make this competitive throughout. Bailey has a plausible route to enough completions and scoring drives to keep pace, particularly if he stays patient against the replacement defensive backs. The full field goal also covers a narrow Louisville win. I’d expect Bailey to spend much of the afternoon taking shorter completions, with NC State’s replacement linemen facing their hardest work whenever the Cardinals force him to wait for something deeper.
Best bet: NC State +3 (-102)
Projected score: NC State 31, Louisville 30
Best Bet: NC State +3 (+100) vs. Louisville
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