The Minnesota Golden Gophers and Michigan Wolverines face off in a Big 10 battle in college football Week 5. The game kicks off at 12:00 p.m. ET on Saturday in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
The Wolverines are listed as six-point road favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 43.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for this matchup.
Minnesota vs. Michigan Prediction, Preview
Michigan Preview
It has been a shaky first month of the season for Michigan. They needed a miracle second put back on the clock to beat Western Michigan. They bounced back with a big win over Oklahoma, but that win looks less impressive as the weeks go by due to Oklahoma’s dismal offense. Ironically, Michigan played arguably its best game of the season last week against Iowa and suffered its first loss. In that game, the Michigan defense looked as stout as ever, and Bryce Underwood had his best game of the season throwing the football. However, the Iowa City magic allowed the Hawkeyes to squeak out a one-point win. This will be a good test for Michigan to keep that level of play going against a weaker conference opponent.
Minnesota Preview
Minnesota has also had a bit of a rollercoaster start to the season. The Golden Gophers got crushed at home against Mississippi State in a non-conference matchup that was considered a coin flip at the time. However, last week, Minnesota got a big road win at Washington to start Big 10 play. Now, Washington has not played very well this year, but it was still a nice win. This home game against Michigan will show if last week’s performance against Washington was more due to Washington’s incompetence or Minnesota’s competitiveness. The Minnesota offense will certainly struggle to score against Michigan, so they will need their defense to come to play.
Minnesota vs. Michigan Pick, Best Bet
My best bet for this game is on Michigan to win big. They should cover the six-point spread as favorites comfortably. The Minnesota offense is not very good, ranking 102nd in adj. EPA/play and 89th in EPA/drive. They have not been able to get the ground game going at all, and the passing game hasn’t been much better. The Michigan defense ranks ninth in the nation in EPA/drive and should completely shut the Golden Gophers down.
While the Michigan offense hasn’t been great, they had a brutal road game at Iowa, which perennially has one of the best defenses in the country. They also had to face Oklahoma, which has one of the best defenses in the nation. Michigan looked much better offensively last week, despite only scoring 19 points. Michigan now ranks 34th in the nation in offensive success rate. They should be able to run the ball efficiently against the Minnesota defense, which ranks 70th in defensive EPA/rush and 107th in defensive rushing success rate.
Michigan ranks 12th in the nation in EPA/drive, while Minnesota ranks 56th in the same category. There is a big talent gap between these two teams, and it should get exposed in this game.
