Keyone Jenkins nailed a damned-near-perfect 19 of 20 passes against TCU, which is a delightful way to introduce yourself to a conference schedule. UCF also forced four turnovers, a rather generous contribution from the other side of the ball. The Knights will have to win more possessions themselves in Houston. Even with some regression from that near-perfect completion rate, though, Jenkins has shown the accuracy necessary to keep UCF moving through manageable throws. UCF’s got a ten-game road losing streak to end. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Houston Cougars and the UCF Knights.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Houston vs. UCF prediction, preview
Duke Watson’s run for 354 yards on just 40 carries—nearly nine yards per attempt—and that explosiveness has been key in extending possessions for the Knights. Houston have allowed only 63.5 rushing yards per game, so I don’t see Watson running absolutely wild here. I do, however, expect UCF to retain enough of a running threat to keep Jenkins out of an afternoon of obvious passing downs.
Houston should do plenty of scoring themselves. Conner Weigman accounted for six touchdowns against Georgia Southern, and the Cougars average 248 rushing yards at a productive 6.05 yards per carry. Their early third-down conversion rate exceeds 70%, though they’ve had some cupcake opponents in the early weeks. Weigman, all the same, can maintain good offense here even as that conversion rate regresses closer to its mean.
UCF vs. Houston pick, best bet
The question for this spread is just how often Houston can interrupt UCF’s rhythm. Georgia Southern scored 28 last week against the Cougars. They’ve shown enough soft coverage against shorter passes to make Jenkins’ efficiency something that can be a devastating chain-moving weapon. Houston’s run defense may push the Knights toward that approach anyway.
Houston could play another good offensive game and spend the fourth quarter answering UCF drives. So I’ll take UCF +10.5. Jenkins possesses enough flash and sniper-accuracy, and Watson enough explosiveness, that I think the Knights have an outside shot at ending their road losing streak. I still’ve got them losing by a touchdown, though.
Best bet: UCF +10.5 (-105)
Projected score: Houston 31, UCF 24
Best Bet: UCF +10.5 (-105) at Houston
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