The Clemson Tigers and the Miami Hurricanes face off in an ACC battle in college football Week 5. The game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday in Clemson, South Carolina.
The Hurricanes are listed as 16.5-point road favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 47.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for this matchup.
Clemson vs. Miami Prediction, Preview
Miami Preview
The Miami Hurricanes have quietly cruised through the first month of the season. Darian Mensah has clicked in this offense right away. He ranks eighth in the country in passing yards and is tied for the lead in passing touchdowns. Miami ranks seventh in the nation in offensive EPA/play and fourth in offensive success rate. Between Mensah, Malachi Toney and Mark Fletcher Jr., this offense will be tough for anyone to stop. The defense lost some NFL talent, but they are still producing at a high level. The Miami defense ranks 20th in defensive EPA/play and has been especially stout against the run.
Clemson Preview
It has been a tough start to the season for Clemson, even despite their 3-1 record. They got steamrolled by LSU in Week 1. Over the following three weeks, they struggled against Georgia Southern, UNC and Cal. The UNC win in particular was quite a fortunate one for Clemson after a weather delay somehow ignited their offense in the fourth quarter. Clemson ranks 134th out of 138 FBS offenses in EPA/pass. They have played a lot of low-scoring, tight games and then relied on their superior talent to squeak out wins at the end. However, in their one game against an elite team, they were absolutely pulverized.
Clemson vs. Miami Pick, Best Bet
My best bet is on the Clemson first-half team total staying under 7.5 points. This Clemson offense has been putrid this season, but has been particularly poor in the first half. Clemson only scored three points in the first half against LSU, six points in the first half against UNC and 10 points in the first half against Cal. The Tigers have only scored two first-half touchdowns across their four games this season.
The Clemson passing offense ranks 134th in the nation in EPA. They should struggle to move the ball through the air, as they have all season. Clemson has had a bit more success on the ground, but you can’t run against Miami. The Hurricanes rank top-eight in the nation in defensive EPA/rush and defensive rushing success rate. They should completely shut down the Clemson offense. If this game gets ugly, Clemson might get some scores in garbage time, which is why I am going with the first-half under here.
