Arizona (3-1) has what it takes to make a run this season. Still, that won’t be easy in one of the nation’s most competitive conferences. Tonight, the Wildcats take on another Big 12 foe at home in Cincinnati (4-0). The Bearcats, despite winning four straight, have had a few close calls already. Can they keep rolling tonight in Tucson?
The Wildcats are listed as 6.5-point favorites over the Bearcats, with the total set at O/U 55.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s Cincinnati vs. Arizona Week 5 matchup.
Cincinnati vs. Arizona prediction, preview
It all starts on the ground for the Bearcats. They’re currently averaging 270.0 rushing yards per game, second-most in the Big 12. Even more impressive, the team is averaging a whopping 6.51 yards per carry. That only places added importance on getting out to an early lead. If the Bearcats enter the second half with some cushion, they’re more than willing to bleed some clock. Running backs Gi’Bran Payne and Cole Tabb have combined for 679 rushing yards and nine total touchdowns. Still, there will come a time when Cincinnati needs to play catchup. Fortunately, quarterback JC French is a gamer. Through four games, he’s thrown for 796 yards and six touchdowns. Just as important, the senior has yet to give away an interception.
With that being said, the level of competition so far for Cincinnati hasn’t been the most intimidating. The program has yet to play a true road game, although last weekend provided a solid conference victory over Kansas State. Regardless, this Saturday’s showdown is a clear step up in difficulty. Arizona’s defense isn’t among the nation’s best, but this group is no pushover. The school is allowing a modest 3.06 yards per rush attempt, seventh-best in the Big 12. The Wildcats have been a bit more vulnerable through the air, but there’s reason to believe they’ll improve in that regard. This team allowed 5.6 yards per pass attempt last season, second-best in the conference.
On the other side of the ball, the Wildcats roster a true superstar under center. Noah Fifita is a game-changing talent at quarterback, among the nation’s best passers. After four games, he’s thrown for 1,131 yards and a conference-leading 11 touchdowns while giving up two interceptions. To boot, Fifita is pacing the Big 12 with a 75.6% completion percentage. Tre Spivey has emerged as a weapon, leading Arizona with 19 receptions for 278 receiving yards. However, six different Wildcats have already passed 100 yards receiving this season. There is no shortage of quality pass catchers in Tucson this season. If there’s a caveat to those prolific numbers, it’s on the ground. UA’s leading rusher Kedrick Reescano has only gained 161 yards.
This week’s contest presents an opportunity to kickstart this Arizona running game. The Bearcats are a bit thin up front, allowing 4.05 yards per rush attempt. That’s only good enough for 14th in the 16-team Big 12. Keep in mind, Cincinnati has held a decent lead in all four of its matchups this season. There’s a very real chance the team is playing from behind at some point this evening. The Wildcats could also make things more difficult by utilizing the clock to their advantage. Arizona is averaging 32:41 minutes of possession per game, 23rd-best among all FBS schools. A similar showing tonight could force Cincy into more passes than usual.
Best Bet: Arizona -6.5 (-115)
It’s tempting to back this undefeated Cincinnati squad. However, Arizona has a clear advantage with Fifita under center. In addition, the Wildcats have an offensive game plan that could stifle an inconsistent Bearcats defense. Cincy’s struggles to defend the run don’t inspire much confidence as a road underdog. Back the Wildcats to earn a comfortable win on Saturday night.
