Below, I break down my favorite player prop bets for this week’s college football game between the Missouri Tigers and the Florida Gators.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Missouri vs. Florida player props
Austin Simmons 250+ total passing yards (-110)
Austin Simmons threw for 295 yards against Mississippi State even as Missouri lost control of the game around him. His 39 attempts matter here: the Tigers continued throwing through an adverse score, and Cayden Lee caught 11 passes for 156 yards. Simmons had a receiver he could repeatedly find, with meaningful yardage following the completions.
That concentration should help against Florida if Missouri need to answer the Gators’ running game. Simmons has already topped 290 passing yards against both Power Four opponents on the schedule. I’d temper the efficiency against a different defense, but Missouri have demonstrated a willingness to keep him throwing in competitive games.
Florida can complicate the over by holding the ball through Jadan Baugh, whose four straight games with at least 136 rushing yards establish a real possession threat. I’m allowing for fewer attempts than Simmons had at Mississippi State. At a line of 249.5 or lower, though, I like his chances of reaching the mid-250s through ordinary completions and another productive afternoon with Lee.
Jamal Roberts 100+ total rushing yards (+105)
Missouri handed Jamal Roberts the ball 26 times against Mississippi State, a substantial workload in a game the Tigers ultimately lost. He finished with 95 yards, so another outing at that efficiency would fall just short of this number. The bet requires improvement, and Florida’s vulnerable rushing defense supplies a reasonable opponent against which to expect it.
Roberts has already run for 125 and 128 yards in separate games this season. With Ahmad Hardy and Malae Fonoti listed out, he should retain the lead role. A similar workload to last week would require slightly less than four yards per carry to reach 100, an attainable standard even after reducing the influence of those two larger performances.
I’d be more reluctant at heavy juice. At +105, I can back the workload and a modest efficiency recovery while acknowledging the danger of Florida building a large lead. Missouri kept running through last week’s loss, which is useful evidence about Roberts’ role when the score becomes uncomfortable.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
