Below, I break down my favorite player prop bets for this week’s college football game between the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Iowa vs. Ohio State player props
Jeremiah Smith 130+ total receiving yards (+100)
Jeremiah Smith had already caught eight passes for 150 yards by halftime against Illinois. His eventual 217 yards and four touchdowns were extraordinary, but the early workload particularly interests me here. Ohio State sought him out repeatedly while they were still establishing control of the game.
Smith has 33 catches for 617 yards through four games, averaging more than eight receptions and 154 yards. Iowa will present a stronger defensive assignment than those raw averages capture. The Hawkeyes allow only eight points per game, with shutouts of Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa contributing heavily to that figure.
I expect Smith’s efficiency to come down and still like 130+. Eight catches at a reduced 17.3 yards apiece would clear the number, compared with his season average of 18.7 yards per reception. Iowa’s running game could remove possessions, which is the principal concern. A competitive afternoon would preserve Smith’s late targets, and Julian Sayin has ample reason to keep returning to his most productive receiver.
Kamari Moulton 60+ total rushing yards (+110)
Kamari Moulton managed only 44 yards on 13 carries at Michigan, so the case for this over starts with a better matchup. Ohio State’s rushing success rate allowed ranks 120th, a poor early-season result that suggests Iowa can find more consistent gains than they did in Ann Arbor.
Moulton’s 284 yards on 39 season carries look impressive, although his 183-yard opener against Northern Illinois accounts for much of that efficiency. I’d bring the expectation down sharply against the Buckeyes. Even at a more restrained 4.5 yards per carry, fourteen attempts would produce 63 yards and clear this number.
That workload is close to what he received against Michigan, and Iowa have good reason to continue running while they try to limit Ohio State’s possessions. An early Buckeyes lead could force more passing and spoil the bet. At +110, though, I’ll take Moulton to reach 60 yards against a run defense that has allowed opponents to stay ahead of the chains too often.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
