Jackson Gutierrez did a great deal of work in Navy’s loss to UAB. He carried 34 times for 134 yards, and the Midshipmen finished with a substantial 24-15 advantage in first downs. They also held the ball for more than 34 minutes. Then two fourth-quarter fumbles helped turn a 20-17 lead into a 24-20 defeat. Navy have some very specific mistakes to correct after an otherwise competitive offensive performance. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Air Force Falcons and the Navy Midshipmen.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Air Force vs. Navy prediction, preview
Ball security is the obvious starting point. The passing game deserves attention, too. Gutierrez completed only four of 13 throws, and two 39-yard completions accounted for most of his 104 passing yards. Navy cannot expect every difficult possession to survive through an explosive pass. With Braxton Woodson’s ankle still an availability concern, I’m approaching this game through the offense Gutierrez actually operated: a heavy quarterback workload, sustained rushing possessions, and limited passing consistency.
Air Force’s defense makes that approach more appealing. Their early rushing efficiency numbers sit near the bottom of the FBS, including a ranking of 131st in rushing success rate allowed. Opponents have been able to stay ahead of the chains too often. Navy should have opportunities to establish the fullback and quarterback runs early, and those ordinary gains matter enormously in an offense that becomes much harder to defend once the next first down is only a few yards away.
Navy’s defense will have plenty of tackling to do. The Falcons average an imposing 333.7 rushing yards per game, and Navy will need disciplined assignments throughout the afternoon. A defender who pursues the wrong option can undo several good snaps at once. Air Force just beat Nevada 36-33 in overtime, though those overtime points should stay out of any estimate of their usual regulation scoring pace. I have both offenses reaching the twenties, with neither defense consistently stopping the run.
Navy vs. Air Force pick, best bet
A missed option assignment carries particular weight in this rivalry. Both staffs prepare for these option responsibilities, and both understand how a lost possession can decide the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy race. Navy are making another road trip after visiting UAB, while Air Force stay home. I account for that by keeping the projected margin narrow. The Midshipmen’s 0-3 ATS start also cautions against treating their competitive yardage as proof that the results must immediately improve.
Navy’s passing limitations keep me on the spread at +3. Gutierrez helped them produce enough first downs at UAB to sustain a winning offense, and Air Force’s run defense looks poorly equipped to keep him behind the chains. Navy will have to finish drives and protect the ball through contact; those are the two places last week’s encouraging possession numbers went to waste. I project the Midshipmen winning 24-23, with the full field goal particularly useful in a game this evenly matched.
Best bet: Navy +3 (-112)
Projected score: Navy 24, Air Force 23
Best Bet: Navy +3 (-105) at Air Force
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