When the WNBA playoffs started, it appeared as if there would be two competitive series and two sweeps, with the No. 5 Washington Mystics and No. 7 Dallas Wings both holding roughly a one-in-four chance of pulling off an upset against the No. 4 Atlanta Dream and No. 2 Golden State Valkyries, respectively. Atlanta took care of business, sweeping the Mystics to set up a date with the No. 8 New York Liberty in the semifinals.
However, after Golden State took Game 1 against the Wings in comfortable fashion, Dallas stormed back to claim a 108-100 victory in overtime in Game 2, sending the series to a winner-take-all Game 3 at 9 p.m. ET tonight at the Chase Center. The winner will advance to face the No. 3 Las Vegas Aces, who put away the No. 6 Indiana Fever, 94-83, last night.
The Valkyries have a completely healthy roster ahead of tonight’s game, while the Wings reported two injuries; center Awak Kuier (wrist) is probable, but forward Alanna Smith (leg) remains out with the injury she suffered during the FIBA Women’s Basketball World Cup. That doesn’t include Golden State’s Iliana Rupert (pregnancy), who hasn’t played this season, or Dallas’ Azzi Fudd, who underwent knee surgery in August.
The Valkyries are 8.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-325 Moneyline), with the total set at 159.5 points. The Wings are +260 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this do-or-die clash and offer a prediction.
Wings at Valkyries Game 3 Best Bet
Dallas Wings +8.5 (-112): Even though Dallas failed to cover the spread in Game 1 and sports a net rating 12.3 points per 100 possessions worse on the road, the Wings have the league’s best midrange shooter in Paige Bueckers and have proven capable of forcing a usually disciplined Golden State team to foul. They didn’t shoot well in their August 17 regular season defeat but still covered.
Wings at Valkyries Game 3 prediction, pick
During the regular season, Golden State won through its defense, conceding a league-low 99.3 points per 100 possessions, but although it did a good job stopping Dallas in Game 1, the Wings managed 93 points in regulation and another 15 in overtime of Game 2. It was all Arike Ogunbowale; despite slow games from Dallas’ other stars, Paige Bueckers and Jessica Shepard, Ogunbowale scored 45 points, a WNBA playoff record, to keep her team’s season alive. On the bright side, the Valkyries struggled on offense in the regular season, ranking just seventh on that side of the ball, but they scored at least 100 points in both of their games, with Gabby Williams, Cecilia Zandalsini, and Tiffany Hayes all scoring at least 20 points in Game 1 and Williams dropping 36 in Game 2. The Wings ranked fifth in offensive rating in the regular season, but they haven’t been consistent, as Ogunbowale was poor in Game 1 and Bueckers poor in Game 2.
Stylistically, both of these teams stay away from the paint. Dallas ranked fourth-to-last in shots within five feet per game during the regular season, and Golden State ranked last, although the Wings finished at a rate 4.2 percentage points higher. So far these playoffs, those trends have held true, as the Valkyries have attempted the second-fewest shots within five feet among the eight playoff participants and Dallas the third-fewest. Each team has made 21 shots from close range, but the Wings have the advantage on non-paint twos thanks to Bueckers, the league’s premier midrange maestro. In the long run, I’d expect Golden State to have the slight overall edge in interior play, as the Valkyries had by far the rim protection in the league during the regular season, but it’s close.
After the All-Star break, Dallas had the slight edge on the glass, posting a 52.5% rebounding percentage to Golden State’s 50.9%, and it was only slightly worse without Smith to patrol the middle. However, the Valkyries won the rebounding battle in Game 1 and tied it in Game 2. While both teams were careful with the ball in the regular season, allowing the fewest and third-fewest points off of turnovers, respectively, Golden State won the turnover battle in both games, coughing up the ball just four times in Game 1. In the regular season, the Valkyries were only slightly less disciplined than the Wings, and neither was good at drawing fouls, but Dallas got to the charity stripe at will in Game 2. In that game, Ogunbowale alone shot nearly as many free throws (18) as Golden State (23) did. Had the Valkyries even played a little bit cleaner, they’d have won in regulation and gotten two days of extra rest.
The difference between these teams is their reliance on three-point shooting, as Golden State attempted the most threes in the league during the regular season and the Wings attempted the fourth-fewest. In Game 1, the Valkyries shot 50.0% from deep, their best performance of the season, but in Game 2, they allowed Dallas to go 12-for-23 (52.2%), the best shooting performance of any team against Golden State this season. Both teams have probably shot unsustainably well this series overall, given that the Valkyries allowed the lowest percentage from three during the regular season and the Wings the fifth-lowest mark. I’d give the slight overall shooting edge to Golden State, since Dallas lost its best shooter and perimeter defender, Fudd, in early August, but Bueckers and Maddy Siegrist provide the Wings with plenty of shooting.
The game could go either way if either team gets particularly hot from beyond the arc, but in the end, home-court advantage should deliver the Valkyries their first playoff series win. Golden State more or less maintained its form on the road, posting a plus-7.8 net rating away from the Chase Center and a plus-10.4 mark within it, while Dallas’ net rating fell from plus-11.0 at home to minus-1.3 on the road. Despite not covering the spread in Game 1, the Wings lost to Golden State by only eight at the Chase Center on August 17 despite shooting just 22.7% from deep, so I think they’re in line for a cover tonight.
