These are my picks to win every Week 4 NFL game straight-up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier.
You can bet on any of these games on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 4 Picks and Predictions: Straight-Up Picks with Confidence Levels
High Confidence
Ravens over Titans
The Ravens’ offense ranks inside the top four in EPA/play and success rate through three weeks. They look unstoppable when Zay Flowers is on the field. It’s hard to see Tennessee keeping up with them.
Vikings over Dolphins
The Vikings’ defense is the best in the league so far this season. They rank first in EPA/play and success rate. Meanwhile, this Dolphins offense ranks 31st in success rate. While the Minnesota offense isn’t exactly a juggernaut, it’s hard to see Miami scoring more than 14 points in this game.
Seahawks over Chargers
The Seahawks need a win after getting upset on the road in Washington. They are back at home this week and Sam Darnold has shaken off the rust. The Chargers are still in total disarray, ranking 31st in offensive EPA/play. The Seahawks should get back to their winning ways.
Bills over Patriots
The Bills have one of the best offenses in football so far this season, ranking second in EPA/play. Meanwhile, the Patriots’ offense and Drake Maye look completely lost. Maye ranks 28th out of 34 eligible quarterbacks in adjusted EPA/play this season. The Bills should take care of business at home.
Medium Confidence
Chiefs over Raiders
The Chiefs and Raiders are both undefeated and are competing for first place here in Week 4. The Raiders have been solid, but the Chiefs will be their toughest test by far at this point in the season. Las Vegas has faced the Chargers, Dolphins and Saints. The Dolphins and Chargers both rank in the bottom six in the NFL in offensive EPA/play. Meanwhile, the Saints rank 31st in defensive success rate. The Chiefs rank in the top six in both offensive and defensive EPA/play this season and should be too well-rounded for the Raiders.
Lions over Panthers
The Lions are a simple team to understand. They have an elite offense, ranking seventh in EPA/play and third in success rate. They also have an awful defense, ranking 31st in EPA/play and 29th in success rate. The Panthers faced really poor quarterback play in the past two weeks, but gave up 59 points to the Bears in Week 1. They should struggle to get any stops against the Lions.
Packers over Buccaneers
The Packers have not looked good. However, one of the only teams that has been worse than them is the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay ranks dead last in offensive EPA/play and 29th in offensive success rate. The Buccaneers should struggle to take advantage of the Packers’ defensive shortcomings. Tampa Bay has lost seven of its past eight games dating back to last season. They are in a total rut and I will keep picking against them until something changes.
Colts over Commanders
The Colts run the ball as well as anyone in the league, ranking third in EPA/rush. They should be able to move the ball against the Commanders and control the game. Marcus Mariota played great last week, but the Colts will now have tape to study on how the offense looked with Mariota. Indianapolis should win this game in London.
49ers over Broncos
The 49ers’ offense has been incredible through three weeks. Brock Purdy leads all quarterbacks in EPA/play and the San Francisco offense leads the league in EPA/play. They should be able to attack the Denver defense, which has been far from elite this season. The Broncos rank 21st in defensive EPA/play. The 49ers have far too much firepower for Denver to compete with.
Rams over Eagles
These are two teams that had high expectations but have struggled to start the season. Puka Nacua has a chance to return this week, which would be a massive boost for the Rams’ offense. It has been a tough run for the Rams, traveling to Australia and Denver already this season. However, they have still looked much better than the Eagles. Philadelphia ranks 28th in offensive success rate and 24th in defensive EPA/play. They have issues on both sides of the ball.
Coin-Flip Games
Bengals over Jaguars
These are two teams that have started the season strong, especially offensively. The home-field advantage should be the difference in this one for the Bengals with Joe Burrow making winning plays.
Texans over Cowboys
This is a battle of elite defense against elite offense. Typically, the defense wins out in these meetings. Also, the Dallas offense isn’t as good away from home, while C.J. Stroud is much better at home. That should be the difference for Houston.
Falcons over Saints
The Falcons looked excellent last week with Michael Penix Jr. back at quarterback. The Falcons’ offense ranked second in EPA/play and first in success rate last week. They should score against the Saints, who rank 23rd in defensive EPA/play and 31st in defensive success rate. It’s always tough going on the road in the division, but the Falcons should keep their momentum going.
Jets over Bears
The Jets have lost really tight games against the Lions and Packers over the past two weeks. They should put another NFC North team on upset alert this week. The Jets are a well-rounded team, ranking 11th in offensive EPA/play and 14th in defensive EPA/play this season. They should keep the Chicago offense in check and score against the vulnerable Bears defense.
Cardinals over Giants
The Giants’ offense has looked awful with Jameis Winston, and he is starting again this week. The Cardinals’ offense, meanwhile, has been solid, ranking top 12 in EPA/play and success rate. Both of these defenses rank in the bottom six in the league in EPA/play, but the Cardinals have the much better offense and should get the win.
Steelers over Browns
The Browns have won back-to-back games but still have real issues on offense. The Cleveland defense is solid, but not as elite as in past years with Myles Garrett. The Steelers have issues of their own, but the offense looked solid last week. If they can carry that momentum into Thursday night, they should get the win. However, this game is a true coin flip.
