After Week 3:
Bryce Young leads the league with 939 passing yards, while Tyler Shough has attempted the most passes (132). Geno Smith has the highest completion percentage at 75.5%, while Kirk Cousins and Brock Purdy have thrown the most touchdowns (9). Drake Maye has thrown the most interceptions (6), while Baker Mayfield has taken the most sacks (13). Matthew Stafford and Young have completed the most passes over 20 yards (13) while Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love and Stafford lead the league with four completed passes over 40 yards. Finally, Drew Lock and Purdy have the longest completion at 82 yards.
Here are my favorite QB/WR stacks for Week 4.
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5. Kyler Murray ($5,300) & Jordan Addison ($5,300), Vikings vs. Dolphins
Murray wasn’t good in Week 3, producing only 11.4 FPTS. I’ll give him somewhat of a pass, though, as it was his first game back since suffering a concussion and he had to play in Tampa Bay. This game is at home and, while Justin Jefferson could be out, Murray had no issues connecting with Jordan Addison, who finished with five receptions on nine targets for 90 yards and a touchdown.
The main reason I like this stack is the matchup, as Miami has one of the worst pass defenses in the league. The volume may not be there for Murray, which is why I have him fifth on this list, but the efficiency should be sky-high. Miami has allowed the highest completion percentage (80.3%), the fourth-most passing touchdowns (7), the third-highest passer rating (118.9) and the expected points of -48.87 are the worst in the NFL. The pressure rate is third-lowest and the unit only blitzes 19.8% of the time, the ninth-lowest, resulting in zero sacks.
This could be a get-right game for Murray.
4. Jacoby Brissett ($5,000) & Michael Wilson ($5,500), Cardinals at Giants
This game is in New York and the chance of showers is 50% as of the time of this writing. We saw what the weather did for the Vikings/Bears in Week 2 and the Titans/Giants in Week 3, so there is a teeny weeny bit of concern. If the weather is manageable, though, then it’s all systems go for this stack.
Brissett is fifth in pass attempts and second in completions, converting at a 70.1% rate. He’s thrown four touchdowns to only one interception. After garnering seven targets in each of the first two games, Wilson caught 11 of 17 targets for 89 yards and a touchdown last week. He is the bona fide alpha of the wide receiving group and trails the de facto number one receiver, tight end Trey McBride, by only three targets.
The Giants are dead-last in pressure rate and have racked up one sack. That’s with star edge rusher, Brian Burns, who is done for the season. The -32.73 expected points by the pass defense is sixth-worst.
Brissett should have no problems carving this defense up.
3. Lamar Jackson ($7,300) & Zay Flowers ($6,900), Ravens vs. Titans
There’s a 51% chance of rain for this one as well, so keep abreast of all the info prior to the start of Sunday. Now, the passing volume likely won’t be there as the Titans offense should have difficulty responding. Baltimore is favored by 11.5 points and the total is only 42.5. In addition, Derrick Henry could be the focal point of the Ravens offense.
Jackson should still attempt over 20 passes, though, and the efficiency should be grand.
The Titans pass defense is allowing a completion percentage of 71.1%, the third-highest, and the expected points are 14th-worst.
Flowers has only garnered six targets in each of the two games he played, but he caught five in both contests for 84 and 150 yards with a touchdown. He had snap counts of 29% and 33%. He should see an increase this week. How much remains to be seen.
2. Trevor Lawrence ($5,900) & Parker Washington ($6,500), Jaguars at Bengals
This game has the highest total on the slate at 51.5 with a tight spread of 2.5 points. Cincinnati is implied to score 27 points while the Jaguars are at 24.5. Burrow and company will likely be putting up points, so Lawrence and the gang will have to respond aggressively in due kind.
Through three games, Lawrence completed 66.7% of his 81 attempts for 616 yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions. He’s been sacked only four times. Washington leads the team with 23 targets and has three red zone opportunities. He’s finished with 19.3, 16.8 and 13 FPTS.
The Bengals are eighth in pressure rate despite blitzing at the lowest rate in the league. The 10 sacks are fourth-most. That’s somewhat concerning for a Jaguars offensive line that is rated 27th per PFF.
The season-long numbers are good for the Bengals defense: 61% completion percentage, three passing touchdowns allowed, quarterback rating of 88.3 and -0.07 expected points. That said, Tampa Bay and Houston do not possess the most potent of passing attacks while 43-year-old Aaron Rodgers lit up the Bengals defense for 292 yards and three touchdowns, with five passes over 20 yards, three of those over 30 yards in Week 3.
1. Joe Burrow ($6,800) & Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100), Bengals vs. Jaguars
The Jaguars are stout against the run, so the path of least resistance is through the air for Cincinnati. And I don’t think the Bengals mind that since the offense is built for that purpose, with Burrow the trigger man while Chase and Tee Higgins run around catching everything thrown their way.
Jacksonville is 10th in pressure rate and the eight sacks are tied for sixth-most. The 4.58 expected points are sixth-most while the 82.3 pass rating is the ninth-lowest.
I do think there’s a chance this game plays to the under, but the upside is just too much for me to ignore.
Burrow is completing 70.9% of his 103 pass attempts for 743 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. He has been sacked seven times. Chase has caught 18 of 25 targets for 185 yards and three touchdowns. He’s put up 24.8 and 26.5 FPTS in the last two games and is always in play to go for 40+ on any given Sunday.
