Since the format of the WNBA Playoffs changed prior to the 2022 season, no No. 1 seed has ever lost its first-round series, and prior to Sunday night, no top seed had ever even lost a game in the first round.
That could change tonight, as the No. 8 New York Liberty, fresh off a 91-75 upset over the No. 1 Minnesota Lynx on Sunday night, will host the Lynx in a pivotal Game 2 at 8:40 p.m. ET.
Minnesota is a 3.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-162 on the Moneyline), and New York is +136 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ll break down my three favorite prop bets from this potentially history-making showdown.
Top Lynx at Liberty Game 2 Prop Bets
- Breanna Stewart 23+ Points (-118): Stewart scored 34 points in Game 1 and had at least 24 in each of her final three regular-season games. She always seems to turn up against the Lynx.
- Kayla McBride 3+ Assists (-103): Including the final seven games of the regular season and Game 1, McBride has dished out three or more assists in six of her last eight games, and the Liberty allowed the seventh-most assists per game after the All-Star break.
- Leonie Fiebich 2+ Three-Pointers Made (-123): Fiebich nailed four triples in Game 1. All in all, there’s no reason to doubt the best active three-point shooter in the sport, especially against the team that conceded the most three-point tries during the regular season.
Best Player Prop Bets for Minnesota Lynx at New York Liberty Game 2
Breanna Stewart 23+ Points (-118)
Stewart ended the regular season on a tear, scoring at least 24 points in each of her three games after returning from international duty with the United States national team in the FIBA Women’s World Cup, where she was named tournament MVP. Then, she one-upped herself in Game 1, dropping a 34-point, 12-rebound double-double. Historically, Stewart has been a playoff riser; her career scoring average in the postseason is 1.6 points higher than it is during the regular season, and she’s won two Finals MVP’s. She was the lone bright spot in the Liberty’s Game 3 loss to the Phoenix Mercury last season, scoring 30 points.
The Lynx have a strong defense on paper, as they finished the season with the fourth-best defensive rating overall and roster a pair of former DPOY’s in Natasha Howard and Napheesa Collier, but they slipped somewhat after the All-Star break, falling back to merely the sixth-best mark. In particular, Minnesota has allowed opponents to convert close-range shots at the fourth-highest rate across the second half of the season, and Stewart attempted the eighth-most shots per game within five feet. She also dropped 36 points in the teams’ only matchup in New York this season and had a monstrous 38-point, 18-board effort against Collier at this same venue in September 2024.
Kayla McBride 3+ Assists (-103)
McBride is more a shooter than a playmaker, as she averaged just 2.2 assists per game during the regular season, a tick below her career 2.5 mark. However, she displayed more playmaking chops as the season went on, dishing out three or more assists in five of her final seven games of the regular season and recording a team-high six in Game 1. It tied her career high for assists in a playoff game, though five of the seven postseason games in which she’s recorded at least five assists have come within the last three seasons.
Meanwhile, although New York was solid defensively in the second half of the season, ranking seventh in defensive rating, it struggled with ball movement-reliant teams. The Liberty allowed the seventh-most assists per game across that span, the second-worst mark among playoff teams, as Sabrina Ionescu — never known as an elite ball-stopper to begin with — had the worst defensive season of her career. McBride and Olivia Miles should both be able to find some success going up against Ionescu and rookie Pauline Astier.
Leonie Fiebich 2+ Three-Pointers Made (-123)
Fiebich was an X-factor for New York in Game 1, going four-for-five from deep en route to a 16-point, eight-rebound performance. The German was limited to just 21 games in the regular season because of a foot injury, and the Liberty felt her absence, posting a net rating 6.1 points per 100 possessions worse without her. However, after helping lead Germany to a fourth-place finish at the World Cup and being named to the all-tournament First Team in the process, she’s fully healthy once again. Her career 42.5% mark from beyond the arc is the third-highest in WNBA history.
Fiebich is a nightmare matchup for the Lynx, who have been prone to giving up triples this season. Minnesota conceded the most three-point attempts per game this season, and after the All-Star break, opponents managed to convert at a league-average rate. At six-foot-four, she’s taller than every player in the Lynx’s starting lineup, so she should be able to get her shot up regardless of the contest quality. She made three triples during the teams’ lone matchup at Barclays Center during the regular season, and she had at least two in three of the five games in the 2024 WNBA Finals.
