Is it still the biggest rivalry in sports? Probably not. But I will say, if the Red Sox and the Yankees keep meeting-up in the playoffs every season, it might get back to the heights of old.
A year after getting knocked out in the Wild Card round, Boston will be looking for its revenge against its long-time AL East rival. New York, as always, will be solely focused on a World Series.
First pitch is expected just after 8:00 p.m. ET. In the meantime, let’s dive into this Game 1 tilt and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Game 1 prediction, preview
At this time last year, Cam Schlittler had made 14 career starts at the MLB level. He had looked fantastic in the process, but there were serious questions as to whether the then 24-year-old could rise to the occasion of an elimination game in the postseason. I’m writing this in the future, so we all know what happened next. Schlittler announced his talent to the world in Game 3 against the Red Sox, tossing eight scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts. It was, without a doubt, one of the most impressive performances we’ve ever seen by a rookie pitcher in the playoffs. It was also a hint towards the dominance we would witness in Schlittler’s sophomore campaign.
Across 33 outings and 193.2 innings, Schlittler maintained a 1.95 ERA and a 2.56 FIP. He struck out a massive 31.4% of the opposing hitters he faced. He was simply the best pitcher in the American League, and he’ll surely be hoisting the AL Cy Young when the time comes later this year. Four of those 33 starts came versus Boston, his hometown team. Now, Schlitter was virtually unhittable every time he took the mound in 2026, so I don’t want to necessarily single out the Red Sox for futility, but in 24.1 innings against Boston, Schlitter conceded only two earned runs. That’s a 0.74 ERA for anyone curious.
It would not be hyperbolic to suggest that Schlittler has completely owned this matchup. It would also not be hyperbolic to say that the Red Sox aren’t exactly entering the postseason in the finest form. After a two-month period where nothing seemed to go wrong for Boston, the team’s offense dried up in September. In fact, the Red Sox sported the league’s worst batting average in the month (.219) along with its 29th-ranked wRC+ (81). Willson Contreras is banged up. Jarren Duran never turned his season around. Roman Anthony is striking out waaaaaay too much. There’s just not a lot to like with this lineup at the moment — and that’s without factoring in the presence of Schlittler on Tuesday.
Fortunately, it’s not all doom and gloom for Boston. The club has its own homegrown budding superstar toeing the rubber in Game 1. 23-year-old Payton Tolle will get the call from manager Chad Tracy. The left-hander didn’t break camp with the Red Sox to open 2026, but since being re-called in late April, Tolle’s been one of the best arms in baseball. Over 26 starts and 148.2 innings of work, Tolle’s managed a 3.03 ERA and a 2.69 xERA. Among the 82 pitchers who threw at least 140 innings this season, that xERA is the second-lowest mark of the group, trailing only NL Cy Young frontrunner Jacob Misiorowski (2.12). That’s some pretty good company.
Like Schlitter, Tolle’s also stymied his opponent this evening when given the opportunity. On April 23, the left-hander struck out 11 Yankees over six one-run frames. Then, on June 26, Tolle threw seven scoreless innings versus New York, only allowing a single hit in the process. Both of those starts were at Fenway, but I doubt Tolle will be afraid to take the mound in the Bronx. Remember, he did make a brief relief appearance in Game 2 of last year’s Wild Card series at Yankee Stadium. He’s gotten a taste.
Finally, I have to at least mention Aaron Judge and the New York lineup. As expected — at least by medical professionals — Judge’s calf injury will keep him off the Wild Card roster. Somehow, Giancarlo Stanton is healthy enough to play, but he hasn’t taken an at-bat in an MLB game since April 24. I can’t say my expectation are high. New York ranks 27th in wOBA (.303) and 24th in wRC+ (92) since the All-Star break. Without Judge, it’s a stretch to call this collection of hitters the “Bronx Bombers” or anything close.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Game 1 pick, best bet
Best Bet: Payton Tolle 8+ Strikeouts (+126)
Tolle sports a 32.1% strikeout rate since the All-Star break, which is the fourth-highest mark in baseball. Conversely, the Yankees own MLB’s fourth-highest strikeout rate as a team in the same stretch of time (25.6%). Whiffs should not be an issue for the young left-hander.
Strong Lean: Under 6.5 (-130)
This total is so, so low, but I get it. Cam Schlittler’s 1.95 ERA was the lowest mark in the AL. If Tolle had the innings to qualify, his 2.69 xERA would also be an AL-best. These are two legitimate aces, and they’re both being opposed by underwhelming lineups. There’s no Aaron Judge (calf) for the Yankees. Meanwhile, Boston sports an MLB-worst .219 batting average in September.
