Case Keenum Passing Yards Pick for Bears vs. Eagles

The 2026 NFL season started off so promisingly for the Chicago Bears, as they put up 59 points on the Carolina Panthers in Week 1. In football, though, fortunes can change quickly; Chicago lost to the Minnesota Vikings in sloppy weather in Week 2, and both starting quarterback Caleb Williams and backup Tyson Bagent suffered injuries. Williams is expected to miss three or four weeks with a hamstring injury, and Bagent is likely to sit despite clearing concussion protocol.

Case Keenum, who’s listed as the third-string quarterback on the Bears’ official depth chart, is expected to start tonight when Chicago hosts the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football. The game is set to begin at 8:15 p.m. ET.

The Bears are 3.5-point underdogs for tonight’s game at DraftKings Sportsbook (+160 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 41.5. Philadelphia is -192 on the Moneyline.

Below, I’ll break down Keenum’s passing yards prop for tonight’s showdown.

Case Keenum Passing Yards Prop Bet vs. Eagles

Case Keenum U171.5 Passing Yards (-112)

Predicting Keenum’s production isn’t the simplest task, given that he hasn’t appeared in an NFL game since 2023, when he started two games for the Houston Texans late in the season and went 34-for-53 with one touchdown and three picks. In fact, the last season in which Keenum started more than two games was 2019, when he started eight games for the Washington Commanders. Keenum was okay in the preseason, and it’s clear that Chicago evaluates him and Bagent similarly, given that Bagent has been cleared to return to play despite missing practice all week.

Still, the Bears have had the league’s most run-heavy offense this season, leading the league in rushing attempts, yards, touchdowns, and yards per attempt through two weeks. The sloppy weather in Week 2 played a role, but even in Week 1, Chicago called 39 rushing plays, amassing 291 yards and six touchdowns, the most rushing touchdowns by any team in a game since December 25, 2020. Kyle Monangai had an injury scare during the week, missing Thursday’s practice with a knee issue, but he and D’Andre Swift are both expected to play this week with no limitations. Monangai and Swift rank 10th and 16th, respectively, by PFF’s rushing grades so far this season, and Monangai leads the league in rushing yards over expectation per attempt and rushing yards per attempt.

Monangai and Swift should have no trouble against an Eagles defense that has allowed the eighth-most yards per game and 15th-most yards per attempt so far this season, so running the ball should continue to be Ben Johnson’s top priority. Pounding the ball on the ground was Johnson’s game plan when these teams faced off in Week 13 last season despite Williams’ availability, and Monangai and Swift combined for 40 carries, 255 yards, and two scores in that game. It was Philadelphia’s worst run defense performance since November 22, 2015.

Keenum and wide receivers Luther Burden III and Rome Odunze, by contrast, will have a much tougher matchup. The Eagles rank eighth by PFF’s coverage grades so far, limiting opponents to the fourth-lowest completion percentage and the second-fewest yards per game on the 12th-lowest passer rating. Philadelphia also has gotten pressure at the league’s seventh-highest rate so far, and Keenum posted just a 31.6 offensive grade under pressure in his two 2023 starts, which would rank fourth-to-last among 23 passers with at least 30 pressured dropbacks so far. Both Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean made the AP All-Pro First Team last season, and Riq Woolen has allowed a 71.2 passer rating on his targets throughout his career.