Week 3 of the NFL season is upon us and the league landscape is beginning to take shape. The New Orleans Saints have turned heads through their first couple of games and appear to be on the upswing heading into a much easier portion of their schedule. They’re set to take on the Las Vegas Raiders today, who are unbeaten to begin the Klint Kubiak era and coming off a standout upset of their own.
Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET in New Orleans. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Raiders vs. Saints in NFL Week 3.
Raiders vs. Saints prediction, preview
The Raiders are unbeaten after their first two games, one of which was particularly notable. They took down the Dolphins 27-13 to open the season but beat the Chargers 26-14 on the road last week, a major upset for a new coaching staff that seems to be making a quick impact.
Las Vegas has scored 53 points in two weeks – 11th in the NFL. Kirk Cousins has played quite well as a steady veteran under center with 413 yards and six touchdowns to three picks, so it may be longer than expected before we see Fernando Mendoza make his debut. However, Ashton Jeanty looks incredible with 210 scrimmage yards and a pair of scores with plenty of receiving work, while Tre Tucker leads the team with 146 receiving yards and a score of his own on just seven catches. To be 2-0 without Brock Bowers in the mix is quite the feat, and for what it’s worth, he’s now questionable to play Sunday after dealing with a knee issue. For all their success so far, though, the Raiders are just 25th in offensive EPA/play and have hardly been efficient in any other metric. The defense does seem to have been entirely turned around from last year, however. They’ve allowed just 27 points, fifth fewest, and rank top-six in EPA/play, EPA/dropback, EPA/rush and success rate allowed to opponents so far. Las Vegas also ranks eighth in pressure rate with eight sacks, three interceptions and six forced fumbles.
It’s been an impressive first two weeks for the Saints as well, who are 1-1 but were a two-point conversion away from a perfect start. They fell to the Lions 31-30 in the opener before a 24-17 win over the Ravens in Week 2, so Kellen Moore is beginning to climb up Coach of the Year leaderboard.
New Orleans’ offense has looked quite nice on tape in year two under this head coach. The Saints are 10th in points scored with 54 behind the efforts of an emerging quarterback-receiver duo. Tyler Shough has 662 passing yards and five total touchdowns over the first two starts of his second pro season, while Chris Olave continues to work as his top target with 18 grabs for 268 yards and one score. The wideout has earned elite status given what we’ve seen from him dating back to when Shough took over as quarterback last season, and for now, Devaughn Vele is also making plays as the second option with 12 catches for 133 yards and one touchdown. The team’s usage of Travis Etienne is baffling given the contract he was given this offseason, but he’s another dynamic talent who should contribute more moving forward. Overall, the Saints are 13th in EPA/play and rank in the league’s top half in efficiency metrics. Defensively, they’re a smidge shakier, though. They’ve given up 48 points and fall 19th in EPA/play allowed as well as dead last in success rate allowed. Defending the run has been an issue and they’re generating relatively little pressure with the pass rush, logging four sacks. They do have four turnovers on that side of the ball, though.
Raiders vs. Saints pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Saints as a -3 home favorite with -185 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Raiders are a +154 road underdog to win outright with the game total set at 43.5 combined points.
If Bowers plays, the superstar tight end could supercharge an offense that’s somewhat sluggish in terms of the efficiency metrics. Even if he doesn’t, though, Las Vegas should stick around in this game. I feel as though it’ll be a virtual toss-up, to be honest. The Raiders have a standout halfback in Jeanty and are up against what’s been one of the NFL’s worst defenses against the run so far; their own defense has been very impressive but the numbers may be just a smidge inflated due to playing Miami in the opener. New Orleans has an offense that’s played some of its best ball to open the season and may be able to score enough even if its own defense falls short.
In lieu of a game pick, I’m instead targeting a player prop in this matchup. Jeanty should put up numbers here. He’s been much better inside the tackles than outside this season, and the Saints have allowed some very high success rates on the inside in particular while ranking dead last with a 66.0% success rate allowed on all runs. He should see a heavy dose of rush attempts on Sunday and gash this defense quite a bit to the tune of at least 70+ rushing yards.
