In the noon window of Week 4’s Saturday college football slate, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons will face the Louisville Cardinals. Both teams enter with a 2-1 record, and this will be each side’s second ACC matchup.
Looking at the odds, Louisville is a -13.5-point favorites and holds -550 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. Wake Forest holds +410 odds to pull off the upset, with the game total set at 57.5 points.
This article previews both teams and offers a pick for the Week 4 CFB matchup.
Wake Forest vs. Louisville Preview
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons kicked off their season with a comfortable 38-16 win over Akron, but failed to cover the 27.5-point spread. It was a messy game in which Wake Forest tallied 11 penalties for 115 yards. However, the Demon Deacons rallied 559 total yards of offense and opened the game up by leaping out to a 28-0 lead — before Akron scrapped back into it to an extent.
In their second matchup, Wake Forest edged out Purdue in a 38-36 win in double-overtime. The Demon Deacons held a 10-point lead with nine minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, but a late surge by the Boilermakers forced OT. Wake Forest rushed for an impressive 186 rushing yards, and its penalty issues were largely cleaned up. It failed to cover the 2.5-point spread in the victory.
Most recently, it was Miami that handed Wake Forest its first loss of the season. The Hurricanes tallied a 33-20 victory, but there was an encouraging late surge from the Demon Deacons. Miami leapt out to a 31-7 lead before Wake Forest did its best to make it interesting. The biggest concern was Wake Forest’s inability to generate any form of running game, as it was limited to just 22 yards on the ground at 1.4 yards per carry. Miami has climbed to the fifth-ranked team in the country, and Wake Forest covered the 19.5-point spread in the loss.
North Carolina transfer Gio Lopez stands in at quarterback for the Demon Deacons, and has completed 66 of his 105 pass attempts for 887 passing yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception. He also has added 89 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground, though Ty Clark III and Deuce Lawrence headline the rushing attack. Through the air, Carlos Hernandez is the most notable name with 21 receptions for 322 yards and two touchdowns. Antonio Meeks, Jack Foley, and Kameran Shanks have each also tallied over 100 receiving yards and at least one touchdown.
Louisville Cardinals
The Louisville Cardinals have climbed to 16th in the AP rankings following their 2-1 start to the season with a perfect 3-0 record against the spread. The Cardinals kicked the year off in a thrilling 41-38 loss to Ole Miss. Louisville was able to go score-for-score with a Mississippi team that has now climbed to fourth in the rankings. A game-winning field goal from Ole Miss as time expired was the lone difference.
Louisville took its frustrations out the following week against Villanova, producing a 59-13 win. Villanova was able to cut the deficit to 17-10 in the second quarter, but the Cardinals closed the game out by outscoring the Wildcats 42-3. Louisville generated 635 total yards of offense, including 260 on the ground, while limiting Villanova to just 253 total yards.
Most recently, Louisville defeated SMU 41-31. This was a competitive battle throughout, with SMU holding a 24-21 lead late in the third quarter, but Louisville once again leaned on its offensive firepower to take control of the game. Both teams dominated offensively, especially with the ground game, but three turnovers by SMU proved costly.
Lincoln Kienholz has impressed at the quarterback position, completing 65.8% of his pass attempts for 816 passing yards and six touchdowns through his first three games. He has also been dynamic on the ground, with 153 rushing yards and four scores with his legs. Keyjuan Brown leads the team with 231 rushing yards and two touchdowns of his own, while Isaac Brown has added 164 yards and a rushing touchdown, as well. Tre Richardson and Lawayne McCoy leads the wide receiver in production, with 469 yards through the air and four total touchdowns. Jaleel Skinner has tallied two scores and 166 yards of his own, while TreyShun Hurry has also eclipsed 100 receiving yards.
Wake Forest vs. Louisville Pick, Best Bet
Both these teams can score points at a high rate, and my lean is toward the game total going over the 57.5 point line. Gio Lopez provides a high floor of production for this Wake Forest roster, and Louisville has shown some vulnerabilities in the secondary.
But I am backing Louisville to win and cover the 13.5-point spread as my best bet in this matchup.
The Cardinals are averaging 46 points per game this season, and Lincoln Kienholz is dynamic both through the air and with his legs. Wake Forest is conceding 28.3 points per game, which ranks 110th out of the 138 D1 teams, and it is giving up 379.3 total yards of offense. This includes 5.1 yards per snap. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are producing the 13th-best rate at 7.0 yards per snap offensively. Louisville has yet to turn the ball over this season, while Wake Forest has also only forced one turnover. It will take some self-inflicted wounds from Louisville for this game to be competitive, but the week-by-week improvement in execution is noteworthy, and the 3-0 ATS record is telling.
Wake Forest did manage to limit Miami to just one second-half touchdown in last week’s matchup, but the injuries to the Hurricanes had plenty to do with this. The Demon Deacons deserve credit for making life difficult, but it was a matchup that left plenty of room for improvement from Miami’s perspective.
It feels like oddsmakers have not fully caught up to how talented this Louisville team is, and this is a chance for them to make a big statement. Expect the Cardinals to put up points at a rate that Wake Forest cannot match and for the game to gradually get out of control. Wake Forest lacks the firepower to go score-for-score and they’ll eventually fall back by more than two touchdowns.
