In the early afternoon window of the Week 4 college football slate, the UNLV Rebels will face off with the Akron Zips. This is just the second meeting between these two programs on the football field, with the previous being a 27-6 Akron victory back in 1976.
Looking at the odds for this week, UNLV enters as a 13.5-point favorites and hold -550 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. Akron holds +410 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 52.5.
This article previews both teams and offers a pick for the Week 4 CFB matchup.
UNLV vs. Akron Preview
UNLV Rebels
The UNLV Rebels enter with a 1-2 record on the season and have gone 1-2 against the spread. They kicked their season off with a 27-21 loss to Memphis, in which they led the matchup three separate times before being held scoreless on their final six offensive possessions to cement the loss. UNLV got back in the win column in their second matchup, defeating Hawaii 21-6. The Rebels rushed for an impressive 243 yards on the ground and led from wire-to-wire as the Rainbow Warriors failed to reach the end zone throughout. Most recently, UNLV suffered a concerning 44-6 loss at the hands of North Texas. The Rebels turned the ball over four times in the loss and were out-gained 444-301 despite entering the matchup as slight favorites.
Auburn transfer Jackson Arnold stands in at quarterback for UNLV. He has completed 62.2% of his pass attempts for 601 passing yards and two touchdowns, along with 132 rushing yards and three scores on the ground. Jai’Den Thomas headlines the rushing attack with 224 rushing yards, while Jaylon Glover also plays a role. Tastean Reddicks is posting a team-high 120 receiving yards, while Kayden McGee is the lone other player with over 100 yards through the air.
Dan Mullen’s squad is averaging just 16.0 points per game through the opening three games, which ranks 131st out of the 138 qualifying D1 teams. Defensively, opponents are scoring 25.7 points per game against the Rebels, which ranks 93rd in the country,
Akron Zips
The Akron Zips enter with a 1-2 record on the season and have also gone 1-2 against the spread. They opened the year with a matchup against Wake Forest, suffering a 38-16 loss. Akron allowed a concerning 559 total yards of offense, including over 200 yards on the ground, but managed to cover the +27.5 spread. The Zips got back in the win column with a 45-10 victory over Robert Morris. Akron put up 523 total yards of offense while limiting Robert Morris to 194 yards, and successfully covered the 26.5-point spread. Last week, Minnesota defeated Akron 41-7, with the Golden Gophers scoring 41 unanswered points to start the game. Akron turned the ball over twice and was limited to just 48 total rushing yards, failing to cover the spread as 22.5-point underdogs.
Cibastian Broughton has primarily served as the quarterback, completing a MAC-leading 80.3% of his pass attempts for 380 yards and four touchdowns, while adding 170 yards on the ground. Brayden Roggow has also seen action under center in all three games, completing 63.2% of his pass attempts for 231 passing yards and two touchdowns as well as one rushing score. Sean Patrick and Jordan Gant have each tallied over 100 yards on the ground at the running back position, with Gant notching a rushing score. Through the air, Patrick has a team-high 83 receiving yards, while Marcel Williams leads the wide receiver room with 82 receiving yards.
Akron has been limited to 22.7 points per game through their opening three matchups. This ranks 111th out of the 138 qualifying programs. Joe Moorhead’s squad is also allowing 29.7 points per game, which ranks 113th in the country.
UNLV vs. Akron Pick, Best Bet
UNLV is the more talented overall team, but they have underachieved thus far this season, and backing them on nearly a two touchdown spread is a larger margin than I am comfortable with. The pair of outright losses as favorites are concerning, and the team has not been on the same page for any consistent stretch. Jackson Arnold has looked uneasy under center, and the entire offense looks clunky. This also makes it their third consecutive road game.
But Akron has plenty of red flags regarding their outlook as well. They rank 111th in the country in scoring, 113th in opponents’ points per game, and are currently rank 130th in ESPN’s College Football Power Index. Their lone victory came against lowly Robert Morris, with a longtime season ticket holder called plays on their opening drive.
Instead I am backing the game total to remain under 52.5 points, with it being a narrow pathway to either of these teams putting up significant points. UNLV is coming off a six-point outing against North Texas, with the Mean Green having allowed 52 points to Indiana and 49 points to Texas State in their two other games this year. Akron has just 23 points on the season outside of the 45 points scored against Robert Morris. Their offensive approach has been sloppy, and it feels deeper than just simple execution issues.
The game total has remained under in five consecutive UNLV games and eight of their last nine overall. Expect it to be a struggle for either side to generate points, and for the 52.5 point line to be too significant based on the offensive shortcomings of each side.
