It’s Week 4 and there’s plenty of college football action throughout the day on Saturday. The Texas Tech Red Raiders sit at No. 11 in the latest AP Poll and are coming off a big win against a fellow ranked opponent from the Big 12. Now, they get an easier matchup against the Sam Houston State Bearkats as this Conference USA challenger heads into Lubbock.
Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech in Week 4 of the 2026 college football season.
Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech prediction, preview
It’s clear that one of these programs has a major upper hand, and it’s not the visitors who do. Sam Houston is 1-2 to open the season, but that lone win just came last week against Nicholls, a team from the FCS. Granted, that was a 59-0 drubbing in favor of the Bearkats, but this is the same group that’s also lost 23-17 to Tulsa and 24-21 to Troy. The good news is that SHSU has kept games close against fellow FBS programs, but the bad news is that the competition hasn’t been nearly up to the caliber of Texas Tech.
Bear in mind that the stats are inflated somewhat by that blowout win last week, but Sam Houston is averaging 32.3 points and 454.3 yards per game. The production has largely come through the air behind an admittedly great start for quarterback Landyn Locke, who has a 67.6% completion rate with 973 yards, nine touchdowns and just one interception. He’s played quite well, though the offensive line has caused problems as he’s taken nine sacks already. Wideout Grady O’Neill leads the team with 17 receptions and is tied for the lead with two touchdowns, but his 192 receiving yards come up just shy of speedster Chris Reed, who has 204 yards and a pair of scores on just nine catches. The passing attack does boost the chance that the Bearkats could stick around for a bit in this game, but the fact that the defense has allowed 209.0 rushing yards per game across two FBS games could be a major issue.
Texas Tech hasn’t exactly looked dominant this season, but the reigning Big 12 champs are still nationally ranked at 3-0. Those wins include a 33-10 win over ACU of the FCS, plus a 35-24 dub over Oregon State and a 28-26 nail-biter over No. 25 Houston. The most recent of those games was a thriller that saw the Red Raiders overcome a very slow start and wind up coming back, narrowly surviving a late push from the Cougars. It was, perhaps, their best win of young season, though.
This offense isn’t quite the world-beater it was last season, but Tech averages 32.0 points and 416.0 yards per game thus far. The run game is what has impressed – while 165.3 rushing yards per game doesn’t sound too wild, the duo of J’Koby Williams and Cameron Dickey remains one of the better backfield pairings in college football. Williams has excelled in particular with 249 rushing yards and three scores at a clip of 6.2 yards per carry, also ranking third on the team in receiving with 87 yards on a roster-best 13 catches. Kenny Johnson is the wideout who’s stood out with 13 grabs of his own for 230 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Granted, quarterback Will Hammond has been up-and-down with a 72.4% completion rate, 744 yards and three touchdowns to two interceptions, but his play is solid enough coming off last season’s ACL tear. And while Texas Tech’s defense isn’t the truly elite unit we saw last year, the Red Raiders have largely taken away the run and have eight sacks, too.
Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Texas Tech enters as a 34.5-point favorite. The game total sits at 55.5 combined points between these teams.
Call me crazy, but I think this spread is too wide for the most part. There’s a massive gap between the caliber of guys recruited to a Big 12 vs. a Conference USA program, but there’s an avenue for Sam Houston to cover in this one. The Red Raiders’ defense is giving up a smidge over 275 passing yards per game – they allowed 119 to ACU, 417 to Oregon State and 257 to Houston, to be exact. They have quality talent in the back end, but just like we saw last season, the defense focuses on the front by working to take away the run and get to the quarterback. They’re a bit vulnerable to the passing attack at times, which works in the Bearkats’ favor.
To be clear, I’m not saying this game will be close by any means. However, Texas Tech hasn’t showed the makings of a real superpower yet and let the opposition hang around for various amounts of time in all three games, narrowly escaping with wins over the last two weeks against FBS opponents. If Sam Houston’s aerial attack can keep firing this week and the offensive line can keep the quarterback upright, the Bearkats will have what they need to keep this game within 34 points.
Best Bet: Sam Houston +34.5 (-112)
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