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Oregon Ducks at USC Trojans (Saturday – 7:30pm ET)
This is a tough game because I have a problem trusting both teams. The movement on the game indicates how much opinions of these teams have aggressively adjusted over the course of the last few weeks. In the preseason up to Week 1, Oregon was a -5.5 road favorite in this one. Following Oklahoma State’s massive upset of the Ducks in Week 2, USC touched as large of a -2.5 home favorite. But last week the Trojans struggled to get a road win at Rutgers, while Oregon let out frustrations in a 84-0 win over Portland State, and now we’ve settled in with USC as a 3-point underdog at the Coliseum.
It looked like USC was going to get its defense in order when it shutout Fresno State in Week 1. But things have gotten worse since then, giving up 30 to Louisiana and 35 to Rutgers. It’s tough to trust this defense heading into a massive game. On the flip side, Oregon needs to prove it to me as well.
Let’s throw out 84-0 last week, because I cannot possible put any weight on a Portland State game. The Ducks have not looked the part in either of their real games so far. The loss to the Cowboys is the glaring one, as the box score tells us Oregon was probably fortunate to even keep that game within a possession. But I still point to the Boise State game as well. I’m a Broncos fan every season, generally with bets on their win total and conference, but I’m also realistic. Boise is not a team that should be able to go to Eugene, lead the game at halftime and take the game right down to the wire.
The Ducks just have not looked the part. Lack of urgency, sloppy mistakes … those things are easy to clean up in a desperation spot against Portland State. We have not seen Oregon clean them up against reasonable competition, and this will be the toughest competition yet.
I think we probably see fireworks in this one, potentially from both sides. What I’m most confident in is USC scoring. The Trojans are averaging 43 points through four games, scoring no fewer than 39 points in any of them. And that includes playing backups late in three of the games.
I’ll back USC to continue scoring at home here, as I don’t have faith in the Oregon defense. And if the Oregon offense does show up and hang a big number, the Trojans will be pressing to put up points. I’m also trusting my initial lean on this game and making a smaller play taking the points with the home dog. Oregon has not looked the part yet, and I’ll make the Ducks prove it on the road.
CFB Pick: USC Team Total OVER 29.5 (-110)
CFB Pick: USC +3 (-110) – 0.5-units
