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Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Air Force Falcons prediction, pick for College Football on Saturday 9/26/26

Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Air Force Falcons prediction, pick for College Football on Saturday 9/26/26

College Football Sports Betting Picks DraftKings Sportsbook Insights

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By: Dan Johnson

Carter Jones returned at Middle Tennessee with 185 passing yards and a rushing touchdown, and Jeff Choate can build around his preferred quarterback again. The Wolf Pack still lost 27-20. Jones needs to finish more drives, but I’d happily let him attack an Air Force secondary whose early numbers conceal some miserable coverage. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Nevada Wolf Pack and the Air Force Falcons.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

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Nevada vs. Air Force prediction, preview

Troy Calhoun’s defense has chopped its yardage allowance from 423.2 per game last season to 240.5. Duquesne contributed 107 yards to that improvement. North Dakota State inflicted considerably more damage, piling up 374 and leading 35-13 in the third quarter. Nathan Hayes threw touchdowns of 44 and 41 yards. I’m hardly ready to celebrate a defensive transformation.

Dominic Kelley should make those coverage assignments harder. He has rushed for 281 yards on 41 carries, and Nevada’s blockers have surrendered one sack through three games. Jones carried 11 times in his return. Keep testing the quarterback keeper, make Air Force defend Kelley, and I’d expect Choate to pursue some throws behind linebackers preoccupied with those runners.

Air Force can make Nevada’s linebackers chase just as much. Liam Szarka rushed for 88 yards against North Dakota State, and the Falcons still scraped together 207 on the ground. EJ Smith, already up to 34 tackles for the Wolf Pack, cannot chase every handoff and forget the quarterback. Szarka will punish that mistake.

Air Force vs. Nevada pick, best bet

Szarka has offered much less through the air: eight completions on 15 throws for 122 yards all season. Blake Fletcher’s 85-yard interception return helped Air Force reach 32 points against North Dakota State. Nevada has allowed opponents to convert four of five fourth downs, however, so Calhoun can still prolong possessions through the ground game. I’ve kept Air Force at 28.

At +6, I’m backing Nevada, with the Falcons winning 28-24. Jones threw an interception last week, and the Wolf Pack have thrown five collectively; another giveaway could make this maddening. Still, Kelley can earn first downs and Jones can threaten the perimeter. I’d rather sweat their possessions than ask Calhoun’s secondary to defend another competent passer after Hayes carved it apart.

Best bet: Nevada +6, at -115 or better

Projected score: Air Force 28, Nevada 24

Best Bet: Nevada +6 vs. Air Force

For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Dan Johnson
Dan Johnson has been an editor, writer, and analyst for DraftKings and DraftKings Network since 2024. He’s previously held editorial posts at The Paris Review, Macmillan Publishers, Bedford/St. Martin’s Press, ASSIGNMENT Magazine, and FantasySixPack. You can find his various editorial work & writing (sports-related and non-) at all of the above.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.