A Big Ten clash is on tap tonight in East Lansing. Nebraska (3-0) has been on a roll, reeling off three straight wins. However, all of those games have come against non-Power 4 competition. Saturday’s matchup with Michigan State (2-1) will be a different kind of challenge. Although the Spartans lost last weekend, they hung around in an ugly, hard-hitting affair with #3 Notre Dame. Will MSU put together an even better performance this evening at home?
The Cornhuskers are listed as 5.5-point favorites over the Spartans, with the total set at O/U 49.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s Nebraska vs. Michigan State Week 4 matchup.
Nebraska vs. Michigan State prediction, preview
It’s been nothing but smooth sailing for the Huskers so far. Yes, the competition hasn’t been great; wins over Ohio, Bowling Green and North Dakota aren’t moving the needle. Still, winning three straight by double-digits is never a bad thing. Matt Rhule’s squad has looked terrific on offense, carried by standout quarterback Anthony Colandrea. This season, the dual-threat has thrown for 692 yards, ran for 75 more, and scored ten total touchdowns. On the ground, running back Jamal Rule has recorded 329 rushing yards and six TDs. As a unit, Nebraska ranks tenth in college football with 46.3 points per game.
With that being said, Michigan State’s defense can hold its own. Last week’s performance wasn’t amazing, but holding Notre Dame to 27 points isn’t terrible. This season, the Spartans are allowing just 18.0 points per game to opponents. However, the run defense has been a bit shaky to say the least. The Irish gashed this group on the ground, racking up 161 rushing yards. As a unit, MSU is allowing the Big Ten’s fifth-most yards per rush attempt (3.81). To make matters worse, linebacker Brady Pretzlaff has already been ruled out for this weekend’s contest. His mid-game departure helped spark Notre Dame’s second half success last Saturday.
The Spartans are an old-school squad, preferring to churn out clock and dominate in the trenches. Fortunately for head coach Pat Fitzgerald, he has a monster out of the backfield in Camryn Edwards. The UConn transfer has already racked up 288 rushing yards and three total touchdowns this season, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. His success is imperative for Michigan State’s chances this evening. This group is all about dominating the clock, ranking 29th in the nation for time of possession. The best defense for the Spartans is simply keeping Nebraska off the field.
Michigan State’s knack for moving the chains gives added weight to winning at the line of scrimmage. The Cornhuskers aren’t what you’d call a defensively-minded crew. With that being said, Rhule’s crew has shown signs of improvement in that regard. They’re allowing just 3.2 yards per rush attempt so far, seventh-best in the Big Ten. New defensive coordinator Rob Aurich, previously at San Diego State, has prioritized stopping the run. That includes bringing over transfer Owen Chambliss, a true difference-maker at linebacker. Michigan State’s inability to stretch the field (7.5 YPA) could make its offense one-dimensional tonight as well.
Best Bet: Nebraska -5.5 (-112)
A banged up Michigan State defense will have its hands full against one of the Big Ten’s better offensive units. Even if Colandrea isn’t scrambling, his arm is good enough to keep the Spartans on their toes. On the other end of the field, MSU’s inconsistent passing game doesn’t inspire much confidence. Back the Cornhuskers to earn a statement win tonight.
