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Iowa at Michigan (Saturday – 3:30pm ET)
Iowa thrives in the underdog role, going 4-0-1 ATS when priced as the dog in 2025. That’s based on closing lines, and if you bet the Hawkeyes early at +3.5 in a game they lost by three points (closing +3) to Iowa State, they went 5-0 ATS as the underdog last season. All of those games featured Iowa priced as a single digit dog, and the Hawkeyes largest margin of loss in any of those contests was just five points.
The total also signifies that points will be at a premium, set at just 38.5. This is a rare case where I think teasing college football is in play, with a Army/Navy-esque same game teaser as an option — Iowa +11.5/UNDER 44.5. But I’m sticking to taking the points with Iowa, although I think we have better value on an alternate spread. With the game set at 5.5 (-110), an ALT on Iowa +6.5 is just -130, getting us through a key number of six.
Between the 2025 and 2026 seasons, this will be the 11th time the Wolverines are priced as the favorite. In the previous 10 outings, Michigan is just 3-7 ATS. This is a struggling offense, both in the running and passing game, and will be going up against an elite defense.
Michigan did just get a 17-10 win at home over Oklahoma, which also has an elite defense, but I see three differences. The Sooners made plenty of mistakes, and the QB play was dreadful. I trust Iowa not to make as many mistakes as Oklahoma did, making it more difficult for Michigan to break the game open. The difference against OU was a late interception that gave the Wolverines the ball inside the five-yard line to pound in the winning touchdown.
Iowa is also constantly among the nation’s elite on special teams, which could certainly play a role. The Hawkeyes also have a stronger running game than Oklahoma, which should keep the offense on the field more. I’ll back the Hawkeyes to keep this one tight.
CFB Pick: Iowa +6.5 (-130)
