Below, I break down my favorite player prop bets for Friday evening’s game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Texas Longhorns.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tennessee vs. Texas player props
Cam Coleman 64+ receiving yards (-115)
Cam Coleman caught four passes for 59 yards and two touchdowns against UTSA, and that was while the his entire team offense managed only 172 receiving yards altogether. After his 70-yard debut against Texas State, I’m encouraged that Steve Sarkisian could keep finding the Auburn transfer during a considerably less fluent afternoon for Arch Manning. Coleman accounts for roughly a third of the team’s receiving yardage.
Tennessee has allowed just 4.7 yards per pass attempt, so another explosive Texas passing performance is unlikely. The Volunteers’ early opponents also included Furman and Kennesaw State, and their opponent-adjusted pass defense ranks 21st among 68 Power Four teams. Still, I think Coleman will be the guy Texas manufactures touches for through the air on the road.
My projection’s got him at five or six catches for around 70 yards. At 63.5, though, give me the guy Arch Manning seems to trust most.
Faizon Brandon u209.5 total passing yards (-115)
Tennessee rushed for 299 yards against Georgia Tech, and Faizon Brandon completed 10 of 21 passes for 148 yards. The Volunteers haven’t had to ask too much of their QB’s arm just yet. Brandon then threw for 178 against Kennesaw State on 26 attempts; more completions improved the offense, but his yardage still stopped short of this threshold.
Texas is easily the strongest pass defense he’ll have faced, ranking second among 68 Power Four teams after opponent adjustment. The Longhorns’ front also ranks seventh against the run in that comparison. I expect considerably more difficult second downs than Tennessee enjoyed in Atlanta, with Brandon having to complete throws the rushing game previously made less necessary.
I’m projeting 26 to 29 attempts for a yardage total somewhere in the 170s after accounting for Texas’s pass defense. A substantial Texas lead could blow up the game script and make this under an ugly sweat. I still like it.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
