Below, I break down my favorite player prop bets for Saturday’s game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Oklahoma Sooners.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Georgia vs. Oklahoma player props
Gunner Stockton u224.5 total passing yards (-110)
For all Georgia’s September scoring, Gunner Stockton has attempted only 45 passes across three games. He has completed 38, an extraordinary rate, but the Bulldogs have repeatedly finished possessions through their running game. Against Arkansas, Stockton contributed 97 rushing yards himself and threw only 13 times. His 147 passing yards hardly limited Georgia’s ability to win.
Oklahoma should require more sustained work. The Sooners rank third among 68 Power Four teams in opponent-adjusted pass defense, having allowed opponents to complete 50% of their throws. I expect Georgia to spend longer earning first downs than it did against Tennessee State or Western Kentucky, which should increase Stockton’s attempts while reducing the yardage he collects from each one.
I’m accounting for both changes rather than simply repeating the Arkansas workload. Around 25 to 27 attempts at a little under eight yards apiece puts him near 200 to 210 yards. A close fourth quarter could require another passing possession, so I would keep the under threshold at 224.5.
Nate Frazier u60.5 total rushing yards
With Nate Frazier active and sharing work with Georgia’s other runners, I have him short of 80 rushing yards against Oklahoma. Kirby Smart said Monday that he expected Frazier to play, although Thursday’s availability report still listed him questionable. This projection assumes participation and ordinary rotation, rather than requiring the injury to remove carries.
Frazier gained 75 yards on 14 attempts before his third-quarter exit against Arkansas, while Chauncey Bowens rushed for three touchdowns and Stockton led Georgia with 97 yards. Georgia has several established ways to finish a possession on the ground. Frazier’s five touchdowns through three games therefore give me less confidence in a huge individual workload than the team’s scoring might suggest.
Oklahoma has conceded 2.9 yards per carry, with its opponent-adjusted run defense ranking 25th among 68 Power Four teams. I’ve allowed Frazier greater efficiency than that raw figure and more work than he received against Arkansas, projecting roughly 13 to 15 carries and 48 to 56 yards.
Another five carries would materially change the bet, particularly if Georgia repeatedly runs in the fourth quarter. At under 60.5, I’m relying on the existing division of work surviving a more competitive opponent.
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