Historic franchises will meet up today for a Fenway Park doubleheader. For the Red Sox (85-74), a win in either game on Friday will lock in their spot as the American League’s second wild card. It’s a bit more complicated for the Cubs (88-71), who could fall anywhere between the fourth and sixth seed in the NL. With postseason placement on the line, which club will come out on top during the second leg tonight?
The Cubs are favorites (-115) over the Red Sox; the over/under is set at 6.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s Game 2 showdown between Chicago and Boston on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cubs vs. Red Sox pick, best bet today
- Cubs ML (-115): Peterson has shown an ability to pitch well on the road. In addition, the Red Sox are in a massive slump at the plate. Starting pitcher Bello doesn’t provide much reassurance on the mound, either. That’s especially true when facing a Chicago lineup that leads the league in runs scored.
Cubs vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
David Peterson will take the mound for Chicago. Since coming over to the Windy City in June, the former All-Star has done a solid job. Over 75.1 innings with his new team (14 starts), he’s notched a 3.94 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 68 strikeouts (8.1 K/9). A 3.9 BB/9 ratio isn’t ideal, creating some volatility from start to start. With that being said, Peterson’s 88th percentile ground ball rate (51.1%) is his saving grace. That ability to generate double plays comes in handy when getting out of self-induced jams. Even more impressive, the southpaw has a stellar 2.87 ERA over his last seven starts on the road.
Despite a mid-summer hot streak, this Red Sox offense leaves much to be desired. That’s especially true with Willson Contreras (hand) currently sidelined. The team has scored just 63 runs since September 1st, easily the lowest mark among all MLB clubs. As previously mentioned, Peterson has had trouble with his command against most opponents. Still, that may not matter during today’s contest. Boston is averaging just 2.95 walks per game at home, sixth-fewest in the league. At full strength, the team does a decent job against opposing left-handers. However, the absence of a righty slugger such as Contreras makes an offensive outburst more difficult than ever.
As for Boston, Brayan Bello gets the nod tonight. It’s been a disappointing 2026 campaign for the 27-year-old, relegated to the minor leagues and bullpen at various points in the season. Through 112.1 innings pitched, he’s delivered a 4.49 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 90 strikeouts (7.2 K/9). Granted, he’s done a solid job in recent weeks; the righty has allowed just one earned run over his last 14.2 innings (0.61 ERA). Still, that alone doesn’t erase months of disappointing performances on the mound. Among several worrying underlying statistics, Bello’s 21st percentile strikeout rate (18.4%) and fourth percentile expected batting average (.284) are most concerning. After the completion of this afternoon’s opening game, which will likely be a bullpen day for Boston, there may not be a ton of quality relievers at manager Chad Tracy’s disposal.
Delivering another standout start could prove difficult today against baseball’s highest scoring lineup. The Cubs are an offensive juggernaut, carried by potential NL MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong. The superstar just became the newest member of the 40/40 club, nabbing a steal during yesterday’s win over Miami. However, he’s supported by arguably the league’s deepest lineup. Six different regulars on Chicago’s active roster (min. 300 plate appearances) have posted a wRC+ of at least 100. Granted, this week’s lackluster showing at the plate vs. the Marlins wasn’t ideal. Regardless, that’s likely a blip on the radar. Bello’s knack for giving up contact (9.5 H/9) doesn’t bode well against a team that leads the league in hits.
Few teams have more to play for this weekend than the Cubs. Peterson isn’t without his flaws, but he’s done a stellar job on the road since joining Chicago. On the other side, Boston’s depleted offense is a massive red flag. In addition, Bello’s recent success isn’t enough to ignore bad peripherals and a season’s worth of letdown starts. With a star-studded lineup at its disposal, the visitors are poised to finish this double header with a win.
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