Below, I break down my favorite player prop bets for Friday evening’s game between the Temple Owls and the Army Black Knights.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Temple vs. Army player props
Ajani Sheppard o29.5 total rushing yards
With Ajani Sheppard finally taking the first-team work to himself, I can be a little more ambitious about Temple’s quarterback rushing—though not so ambitious that I’m fooled by all 66 of his Toledo yards. He gained 22 of those in overtime. We’re, however, far more interested in the 44 he collected during regulation time. Especially against an Army offense whose entire identity bends on clock management, making Temple waiting between possessions.
Sheppard has a great cast around him now that his turn has arrived. Behind four returning 2025 offensive-line starters, the Owls have rushed for at least 176 yards in every game. RB Samuel Brown should be healthy for this game, too, and he’s just another runner Army’ll have to account for inside. Defenders who zone in on Brown will have to recover their poise when Sheppard keeps.
Getting enough snaps could prove harder than finding the occasional opening. Army possessed the ball for 35:46 against South Florida, extending two drives on fourth down. Temple did convert nine of 15 third downs at Toledo, however. I think its offense has improved enough that we can project that efficiency going forward, including this game, including with Sheppard’s market line this week.
Over 29.5 leaves room for Army to reduce Sheppard’s opportunities. I’m asking for less than his regulation production Saturday, with the starting job now firmly his and Samuel Brown sharing the ground-game attention.
Godspower Nwawuihe o69.5 total rushing yards
I think the USF game is a really great indication of what we might expect from Nwawuihe in an ideal FBS game. Against those Bulls, he gained 94 yards, which helped the Black Knights assembled several long scoring drives. I see him grinding down the Owls this week similarly.
Temple’s on a short week, and just allowed Toledo to convert eight of 13 third downs during an overtime road loss. Army HC Jeff Monken, meanwhile, had a bye to prepare. You just know he’s going to to keep testing whether the Owls can defend the option with verve, through different looks, sinister blocking schemes. As mentioned, the Owls defense is fairly ineffective when it comes to stopping drives.
Ultimately, how Temple assigns its defenders will determine where the carries go. Hellums had 18 totes against USF. Nwawuihe, at best, shares this offense even when Army runs almost exclusively. He’s not a feature back.
Still, because of his team and their identity, a 1A role in a shared backfield looks a helluva lot like a three-down back workload. I’ve got him at roughly 17-20 attempts, at a YPC rate below the 4.7 he managed against the Bulls. That still supports an over at 69.5. Temple could push more of the workload toward Hellums, sure. But Nwawuihe’s got the production profile the screams he should blow by this line, seeing what he’s done already to actual FBS opponents.
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