Last season, the Las Vegas Aces earned the second seed in the WNBA Playoffs, and perhaps it delivered them all the luck that they needed. Las Vegas ended up with home-court advantage in the WNBA Finals and swept the Phoenix Mercury to claim its third title in four seasons.
The Aces have an outside shot of securing the second seed again for this season’s playoffs, as they’ll require a win over the Mercury at 10:10 p.m. ET and a Los Angeles Sparks upset over the Golden State Valkyries at the same time. With a Las Vegas loss or a Golden State win, the Valkyries would have the second seed.
Each team has one player listed on the injury report for tonight’s game: the Aces will be without reserve guard Dana Evans (knee), and superstar trade deadline acquisition Kelsey Plum (leg) will sit for Phoenix.
Las Vegas is a 10.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-470 Moneyline), with the total set at 174.5 points. The Mercury are +340 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this WNBA Finals rematch and offer a prediction.
Aces at Mercury Best Bet
Phoenix Mercury +9.5 (-110): These teams play pretty similar styles, shying away from the restricted area on both sides of the ball and not closing out well on shooters, so it should be pretty competitive, even though the Aces’ shooting, transition play, and rim protection should allow them to pull away in the end. Las Vegas’ recent dominance has been boosted by games against the league’s bottom-feeders.
Aces at Mercury prediction, pick
The Aces aren’t quite as hot as they were in 2025, when they ended the regular season on a 16-game winning streak, but an 8-2 record and a plus-14.4 net rating in the last 10 games is pretty close, and A’ja Wilson (26.0 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 3.4 combined steals/blocks on 53-41-86 shooting splits) is a shoo-in for her fourth MVP in five seasons and fifth overall. Las Vegas has sported a plus-24.3 net rating across its last six games, winning each. Phoenix has gone the opposite direction after making the Finals, losing Satou Sabally and trading Monique Akoa Makani, although the Mercury have still been the best of the three 16-27 teams with a chance to upend the playoff picture tonight. They’ve merely been slightly below-average on both sides of the ball, and they were actually 10.3 points per 100 possessions worse in Plum’s 105 minutes.
Interior play likely won’t be a major factor tonight, as both of these teams have been very efficient on very low volume in the restricted area. Phoenix has attempted the fourth-fewest layups per game while converting at the fifth-highest rate, and while the Aces are the only team in the WNBA to make more than 70% of their restricted-area shots, they’ve attempted the second-fewest. Similarly, opponents have attempted the fourth-fewest layups against Las Vegas and the second-fewest against the Mercury; they’ve been accurate against Phoenix, but thanks to Wilson’s defensive dominance, the Aces have limited their opponents to the second-lowest mark on such looks. Overall, Las Vegas has out-scored its opponents in the paint by a greater margin than the Mercury have, but the difference isn’t significant.
Both of these teams should also be pretty even on the glass, as the Aces’ total rebounding percentage is just 0.4 percentage points higher than Phoenix’s, although Las Vegas has been slightly better across its six-game winning streak. The veteran-led Aces also have more stability with the ball, allowing 3.4 fewer points per game off of turnovers than the Mercury have, and while they haven’t drawn many fouls, they’ve also been whistled for the fewest infractions. Phoenix could pose a challenge if it can get to the free-throw line, as only two teams have drawn more fouls, but in two of the teams’ prior three matchups, Las Vegas has won the free-throw battle.
These teams could separate themselves through their three-point shooting. Both teams have attempted 24.1 three-point tries per game, but the Aces have made them at a clip 3.2 percentage points higher, with Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, and Wilson all above 36%. By contrast, the Mercury’s most active three-point shooters, Kahleah Copper, has made just 29.9% of her triples, her worst accuracy since she shot 29.4% in 2015. Neither team has been very good at defending the arc; opponents have connected on their threes at the highest clip against Phoenix and the second-highest clip against Las Vegas.
Although the Aces have been utterly dominant across their last six games, they’ve had a very friendly schedule, with five combined games against the Toronto Tempo, Connecticut Sun, and Seattle Storm, who have by far the three worst records in the league. The Mercury, meanwhile, played a pair of competitive games against the playoff-bound Dallas Wings immediately after returning from the World Cup break. Las Vegas is the better team and should be motivated to win — at least until Golden State pulls away against the Sparks in Los Angeles — but I’ll take Phoenix to cover the spread.
