Below, I break down my favorite player prop bets for Thursday evening’s game between the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and the Liberty Flames.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Coastal Carolina vs. Liberty player props
Makai Jackson 53+ total receiving yards (-125)
Jamey Chadwell returns to Conway with an offense still trying to recover its old reliability, although Makai Jackson has caught a touchdown in each of the first three games. Liberty scored 13 points against James Madison, 24 against Gardner-Webb, and 51 against Ball State. Jackson’s ability to get open for his quarterback and convert in high-leverage situations has been the common denominator throughout all that inconsistent scoring; he has a touchdown in all three.
His 20.0% target share interests me more than anything, however. At 16.4 yards per target, he has churned out enormous production from relatively few chances. That’s fantastic and all, but I still like him to clear this number without the explosiveness. His four-catch game (88 yards) against Ball State nevertheless offer a reasonable picture of how Liberty can involve him, even when QB Deshawn Purdie attempts scant-few passes. He only threw the ball 20 times in that game.
Coastal’s rebuilt defense has the great displeasure of facing a quarterback who just delivered his best performance of the season. I don’t think it’ll be a flat spot for Purdie, and it’s Advantage: Jackson against that secondary, with the market’s low yardage requirement essential to the argument. Liberty’s deliberate, slow offensive pace (plus the possibility of troublesome wind) discourage getting too excited about his 76.7-yard average. I like him to come close to 60, but will only take the 53+ for now.
Peyton Jones u60.5 total rushing yards (-110)
Liberty ran for 212 yards against Ball State, and Peyton Jones contributed 35. Chadwell spread the carries widely enough that Terron Kellman led the team with 51 yards on three attempts; Jones had nine.
Through three games, he owns 25.2% of Liberty’s carries, barely ahead of Kam Davis at 23.6%. His 4.4 yards per rush has produced 45.3 yards per game. I’m reluctant to assume he’ll automatically leap into substantially larger role just because Liberty finally enjoyed a comfortable afternoon on the ground; he didn’t gain north of four yards per carry last week. Plus, his offense has several established alternatives that prevent me from projecting Jones into a 12-15 touch workload.
Even if a close game between these two concentrates backfield carries to Jones more than we’ve seen yet, I don’t think he clears the number. I’ve allowed for it in my projection: 13 carries at his current clip would net roughly 57 yards. That’s still under. Coastal might concede a long run. But that’s only might, and, still, I prefer the under, here. He just doesn’t get the workload.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
