A potential postseason preview is on tap this afternoon in the Bronx. The Rays (95-60) sit comfortably atop the American League East, close to clinching a division title. It’s a different story for the Yankees (89-66), currently positioned as the Junior Circuit’s top wild card team. As things stand right now, these two clubs could be on track for a meeting in the ALDS next month. Game 1 of a Tuesday doubleheader could serve as a measuring stick for these rivals.
The Yankees are favorites (-126) over the Rays; the over/under is set at seven runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s Game 1 showdown between Tampa Bay and New York on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rays vs. Yankees pick, best bet today
- Yankees ML (-135): When Rodon is locked in, he becomes one of the sport’s most formidable left-handers. That’s not ideal for a Rays lineup that can struggle against southpaws. Martinez’s inability to get strikeouts removes one of New York’s greatest weaknesses at the plate. The Pinstripes have what it takes to start this series off right.
Rays vs. Yankees prediction, preview
On a team filled with pleasant surprises, Nick Martinez stands out. The 35-year-old has put together a career year, emerging as a likely postseason starter. Through 171.1 innings pitched (29 starts), he’s produced a 2.94 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 101 strikeouts (5.3 K/9). Despite the lack of whiffs, Martinez has made up for it with elite command. His 1.26 BB/9 ratio ranks as the best among all qualified starters. As an added bonus, the right-hander has been nothing short of fantastic on the road (1.99 ERA). Martinez has allowed one earned run or less in five of his last seven outings away from home.
The Yankees have been the definition of inconsistent at the plate this season, especially with Aaron Judge (calf) sidelined. With that being said, this group has begun to turn things around in recent weeks. During the month of September, their 148 wRC+ is good enough for seventh-best in the majors. Six different hitters on the team have produced an OPS of .700 or better during that time, headlined by Cody Bellinger (.888). It’s also worth noting that the Pinstripes average more runs per game at home (4.80) than they do on the road (4.42). Martinez has held the Yankees to two runs over 10.2 innings this season, but he’s gotten a bit fortunate. The right-hander allowed a total of 17 base runners during that stretch (1.69 WHIP).
As for New York, Carlos Rodon will get the nod this afternoon. When healthy, the left-hander remains an imposing force on the mound. Through 76.1 innings of work (15 starts), he’s accounted for a 2.95 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 83 strikeouts (9.8 K/9). The 33-year-old has given up two earned runs or less in each of his previous six outings as well. Even if manager Aaron Boone keeps Rodon’s innings at a minimum, there’s more than enough support on this roster. As a unit, the Yankees wield the American League’s second-best bullpen ERA (3.14).
Tampa Bay’s offense isn’t among baseball’s elite groups, but there’s more than enough firepower. AL MVP candidate Junior Caminero is the headliner, supported by fellow All-Stars Jonathan Aranda and Yandy Diaz. However, this crew tends to perform better against right-handed pitching. When facing lefties, the Rays have delivered the league’s eighth-lowest OPS (.688). Rodon has allowed three earned runs over his last 19.0 innings of work vs. Tampa Bay (1.42 ERA).
Rodon has been in a groove recently, and he should find some success against a decent, but top-heavy, Rays lineup. In comparison, the Yankees have finally been playing up to their collective potential at the plate. Martinez is no slouch, but his inability to generate strikeouts could pose problems this afternoon in the Bronx. New York is set up nicely for a series-opening win on Tuesday.
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