Another electric week of college football is in the books. Now we turn the page to Week 4, featuring more marquee matchups as we get into more conference play.
I’m publishing early this week with three plays already on my card as of Monday. As usual, I will update with adds throughout the week.
Clemson at California (Friday – 10:30pm ET)
This is my favorite spot of the weekend. Clemson was pretty rude to us last Saturday. With a chance to slide down and seal a 21-20 comeback victory over North Carolina, the Tigers ran one all the way to the house to go up 28-20, which was the eventual final score. I backed under 44.5 and Clemson’s team total under 23.5. Both plays lost as a result of the silly late touchdown.
It was a strange afternoon all the way around in Death Valley. Clemson was trailing 17-3, but mounted an impressive comeback. The game also featured a two and a half hour lightning delay in the fourth quarter. When it was all said and done, the Tigers took nearly six hours to defeat the Tar Heels.
While Clemson did figure things out late, it’s impossible to forget how dreadful it looked early … again. Now, Dabo Swinney and company have to go out on a west coast trip to play at 10:30pm ET on a short week. Not exactly the ideal spot for a Friday night road game across the country.
Cal was home last week and got an easy 49-7 win over Wagner. While Dabo was focused on Bill Belichick last week, I’m sure the Golden Bears have been getting some extra prep in for a big Friday night matchup with Clemson in primetime. Cal will have a massive QB advantage in this one, with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele going up against a freshman that will be making his first road start.
While Clemson’s defense looked good in the second half against UNC, it was shredded in the first two quarters of the game. It was also annihilated in the season opener at LSU. Not that this Cal offense is LSU, but it should certainly be better that UNC. The Cal defense is nothing special, but as I’ve started all season, I have zero faith in the Clemson offense. I expect it to struggle in a tough road environment.
Cal should be hyped up for this one. Meanwhile, Clemson will be fighting against the short week, long travel, all while coming off a big comeback win at home that took nearly six hours. On top of simply not being all that good. Oh, and Clemson could be looking ahead to hosting Miami the following Saturday. Perfect spot to back the Golden Bears on Friday night.
CFB Pick: Cal ML (-115)
Georgia Tech at Stanford (Saturday – 10:30pm ET)
Going to another late night ACC game on the west coast, this time expecting a grinder from both sides. After an exciting 37-27 win over Hawaii back in Week 0, the Stanford offense has been nonexistent. Battling multiple injuries on offense, the Cardinal managed just six points at home against Miami the following week. Even with a bye to work with, Stanford went east last week and scored just seven points against Duke.
Stanford returns home on Saturday night to host a Georgia Tech team that’s been a letdown so far. The Yellow Jackets finally got a win last week, but against Mercer. Prior to that, they were 0-2 and had not shown much life. They scored 24 points at home against Tennessee, but in a game that was well out of reach. The season opener was a complete debacle, managing just 13 points at home against a poor Colorado defense.
Both teams are also dealing with injuries on offense. Tech lost three offensive lineman against Tennessee, two of which sat out last week. Stanford is still recovering from all the injuries in Week 0, and has been missing multiple offensive lineman as well, some of which are already confirmed to be out on Saturday. A pair of receivers for the Cardinal are also dinged up, and are considered questionable for Saturday.
Georgia Tech goes on the road for the first time this season for a 10:30pm ET kick across the country. Neither offensive line will be intact, and neither offense has shown much against any quality competition. I’m expecting an ugly one here, backing under 48.5 on the total.
CFB Pick: UNDER 48.5 (-115)
Virginia Tech at Boston College (Saturday – 12pm ET)
Oklahoma at Georgia (Saturday – 3:30pm ET)
Vanderbilt at Auburn (Saturday – 4:15pm ET)
Generally, I’m looking to play a two-teamer on moneyline parlays, but I really like these spots.
Boston College has been dreadful through three games. It rallied for the Red Bandana game, but beat a Rutgers team that had already lost as a 29.5-point favorite this season. The Eagles barely managed to scrape by Maine last week as a 37-point favorite. Virginia Tech has looked the part with James Franklin, and should dominate on Saturday afternoon in Chestnut Hill.
Georgia has looked every bit the part of a national championship contender so far, and the market reflects it. It hasn’t faced much competition, but is 3-0 ATS with a blowout road win in the SEC opener at Arkansas. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has been a letdown. After dominating UTEP in the opener, the offense has struggled. It scored just 10 points in the road trip to Ann Arbor, and followed it up with a lackluster 14-6 home win over New Mexico. Good luck in Athens.
Auburn catches Vanderbilt in a nice spot on Saturday afternoon. I’m sure by now you’ve seen Vandy’s home win (and cover!) over NC State. It will go down as the worst beat of the season for NC State backers. Now the Commodores go to Auburn off a miraculous win, with their freshman QB making his first road start. Auburn wasn’t up to the task against Florida on Saturday night, but still put up 39 points against the Gators. The Tigers defense had allowed 24 total points in the previous two games, and I expect that version in a bounce-back spot here at home. Vandy gave up 31 to NC State and 26 to Delaware and goes on the road for the first time.
CFB Pick: VT/UGA/AUB Moneyline Parlay (-130)
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