Another electric week of college football is in the books. Now we turn the page to Week 4, featuring more marquee matchups as we get into more conference play.
I’m publishing early this week with three plays already on my card as of Monday. As usual, I will update with adds throughout the week.
Texas at Tennessee (Saturday – 12pm ET)
No. 1 Texas heads to Knoxville on Saturday afternoon to face Tennessee with the Vols in the home underdog role. It’s rare for the Vols to be catching points at home, with this just the fifth time since 2022. In the previous four instances, Tennessee is 3-1 ATS and 2-2 straight up — both wins coming over Alabama, and both losses coming to Georgia.
Texas goes on the road for the first time this season, and has not been a strong road team under Steve Sarkisian. Since Sark was hired in 2021, the Longhorns are just 8-15 ATS in true road games. 2025 was a disaster for Texas on the road, going 0-5 ATS and 2-3 SU. Two of the losses were as a short road underdog at Ohio State and Georgia. The Longhorns were favored by more than a touchdown in the other three, and had very dicey showings.
Texas lost its first road game in SEC play by eight points to a 4-8 Florida team. The two wins both came in overtime in games the Longhorns easily could have lost — a three-point win at Kentucky and a seven-point win at Mississippi State. Those were both 5-7 teams.
In Texas’ only true test this season, it got the miraculous home win over Ohio State to vault to No. 1 in the rankings. But remember, the Longhorns were dominated for three quarters of that game, and had everything go their way in a fourth quarter than Ohio State laid down and played scared.
Tennessee doesn’t have a true test so far. Its best win came against a poor Georgia Tech team, but the Vols took care of business with a 21-point road win. True freshman QB, Faizon Brandon, will have his hands full with this Texas defense. But I trust Josh Heupel to have his QB in position to make plays here, and he poses a dual threat along with what has been a strong running game overall for the Vols.
If Tennessee can limit the big plays out of Texas, it should have a great chance to jump out to a strong start and be in command to hold on for the game. The Vols have a strong pass rush, and Arch Manning has tended to hold onto the ball for too long. The Longhorns have also had offensive line issues, which should play into Tennessee’s favor at home. The OL has had trouble generating a rushing offense, and Hollywood Smothers (starting RB) is surprisingly listed as questionable for this game on the Texas injury report.
I’m splitting my bet up a few ways here to fade Texas on the road. I’m backing the Vols on the full game spread and first half spread, while also placing a smaller wager on the Halftime/Fulltime — a double result market for Tennessee to lead at halftime and win the game.
CFB Pick: Tennessee +4.5 (-110) – 0.5-units
CFB Pick: Tennessee 1H +3 (-115) – 0.5-units
CFB Pick: Tennessee Halftime/Fulltime (+300) – 0.33-units
Virginia Tech at Boston College (Saturday – 12pm ET)
Pure play on the weather here. Lots of rain and high winds expected in the Boston area on Saturday afternoon, which isn’t great news for an already struggling BC offense. Virginia Tech should have some success running the ball, but outside of that, the Eagles in particular should have a tough time scoring.
Virginia Tech has had one of the most disruptive defenses in the country, leaving BC without many options to move the ball. Expect the passing game for both sides to be off, and the clock to be running a lot as both teams lean on the ground game.
CFB Pick: 1H UNDER 23.5 (-110)
Iowa at Michigan (Saturday – 3:30pm ET)
Iowa thrives in the underdog role, going 4-0-1 ATS when priced as the dog in 2025. That’s based on closing lines, and if you bet the Hawkeyes early at +3.5 in a game they lost by three points (closing +3) to Iowa State, they went 5-0 ATS as the underdog last season. All of those games featured Iowa priced as a single digit dog, and the Hawkeyes largest margin of loss in any of those contests was just five points.
The total also signifies that points will be at a premium, set at just 38.5. This is a rare case where I think teasing college football is in play, with a Army/Navy-esque same game teaser as an option — Iowa +11.5/UNDER 44.5. But I’m sticking to taking the points with Iowa, although I think we have better value on an alternate spread. With the game set at 5.5 (-110), an ALT on Iowa +6.5 is just -130, getting us through a key number of six.
Between the 2025 and 2026 seasons, this will be the 11th time the Wolverines are priced as the favorite. In the previous 10 outings, Michigan is just 3-7 ATS. This is a struggling offense, both in the running and passing game, and will be going up against an elite defense.
Michigan did just get a 17-10 win at home over Oklahoma, which also has an elite defense, but I see three differences. The Sooners made plenty of mistakes, and the QB play was dreadful. I trust Iowa not to make as many mistakes as Oklahoma did, making it more difficult for Michigan to break the game open. The difference against OU was a late interception that gave the Wolverines the ball inside the five-yard line to pound in the winning touchdown.
Iowa is also constantly among the nation’s elite on special teams, which could certainly play a role. The Hawkeyes also have a stronger running game than Oklahoma, which should keep the offense on the field more. I’ll back the Hawkeyes to keep this one tight.
CFB Pick: Iowa +6.5 (-130)
Oregon at USC (Saturday – 7:30pm ET)
This is a tough game because I have a problem trusting both teams. The movement on the game indicates how much opinions of these teams have aggressively adjusted over the course of the last few weeks. In the preseason up to Week 1, Oregon was a -5.5 road favorite in this one. Following Oklahoma State’s massive upset of the Ducks in Week 2, USC touched as large of a -2.5 home favorite. But last week the Trojans struggled to get a road win at Rutgers, while Oregon let out frustrations in a 84-0 win over Portland State, and now we’ve settled in with USC as a 3-point underdog at the Coliseum.
It looked like USC was going to get its defense in order when it shutout Fresno State in Week 1. But things have gotten worse since then, giving up 30 to Louisiana and 35 to Rutgers. It’s tough to trust this defense heading into a massive game. On the flip side, Oregon needs to prove it to me as well.
Let’s throw out 84-0 last week, because I cannot possible put any weight on a Portland State game. The Ducks have not looked the part in either of their real games so far. The loss to the Cowboys is the glaring one, as the box score tells us Oregon was probably fortunate to even keep that game within a possession. But I still point to the Boise State game as well. I’m a Broncos fan every season, generally with bets on their win total and conference, but I’m also realistic. Boise is not a team that should be able to go to Eugene, lead the game at halftime and take the game right down to the wire.
The Ducks just have not looked the part. Lack of urgency, sloppy mistakes … those things are easy to clean up in a desperation spot against Portland State. We have not seen Oregon clean them up against reasonable competition, and this will be the toughest competition yet.
I think we probably see fireworks in this one, potentially from both sides. What I’m most confident in is USC scoring. The Trojans are averaging 43 points through four games, scoring no fewer than 39 points in any of them. And that includes playing backups late in three of the games.
I’ll back USC to continue scoring at home here, as I don’t have faith in the Oregon defense. And if the Oregon offense does show up and hang a big number, the Trojans will be pressing to put up points. I’m also trusting my initial lean on this game and making a smaller play taking the points with the home dog. Oregon has not looked the part yet, and I’ll make the Ducks prove it on the road.
CFB Pick: USC Team Total OVER 29.5 (-110)
CFB Pick: USC +3 (-110) – 0.5-units
Georgia Tech at Stanford (Saturday – 10:30pm ET)
Going to another late night ACC game on the west coast, this time expecting a grinder from both sides. After an exciting 37-27 win over Hawaii back in Week 0, the Stanford offense has been nonexistent. Battling multiple injuries on offense, the Cardinal managed just six points at home against Miami the following week. Even with a bye to work with, Stanford went east last week and scored just seven points against Duke.
Stanford returns home on Saturday night to host a Georgia Tech team that’s been a letdown so far. The Yellow Jackets finally got a win last week, but against Mercer. Prior to that, they were 0-2 and had not shown much life. They scored 24 points at home against Tennessee, but in a game that was well out of reach. The season opener was a complete debacle, managing just 13 points at home against a poor Colorado defense.
Both teams are also dealing with injuries on offense. Tech lost three offensive lineman against Tennessee, two of which sat out last week. Stanford is still recovering from all the injuries in Week 0, and has been missing multiple offensive lineman as well, some of which are already confirmed to be out on Saturday. A pair of receivers for the Cardinal are also dinged up, and are considered questionable for Saturday.
Georgia Tech goes on the road for the first time this season for a 10:30pm ET kick across the country. Neither offensive line will be intact, and neither offense has shown much against any quality competition. I’m expecting an ugly one here, backing under 48.5 on the total.
CFB Pick: UNDER 48.5 (-115)
Virginia Tech at Boston College (Saturday – 12pm ET)
Oklahoma at Georgia (Saturday – 3:30pm ET)
Vanderbilt at Auburn (Saturday – 4:15pm ET)
Generally, I’m looking to play a two-teamer on moneyline parlays, but I really like these spots.
Boston College has been dreadful through three games. It rallied for the Red Bandana game, but beat a Rutgers team that had already lost as a 29.5-point favorite this season. The Eagles barely managed to scrape by Maine last week as a 37-point favorite. Virginia Tech has looked the part with James Franklin, and should dominate on Saturday afternoon in Chestnut Hill.
Georgia has looked every bit the part of a national championship contender so far, and the market reflects it. It hasn’t faced much competition, but is 3-0 ATS with a blowout road win in the SEC opener at Arkansas. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has been a letdown. After dominating UTEP in the opener, the offense has struggled. It scored just 10 points in the road trip to Ann Arbor, and followed it up with a lackluster 14-6 home win over New Mexico. Good luck in Athens.
Auburn catches Vanderbilt in a nice spot on Saturday afternoon. I’m sure by now you’ve seen Vandy’s home win (and cover!) over NC State. It will go down as the worst beat of the season for NC State backers. Now the Commodores go to Auburn off a miraculous win, with their freshman QB making his first road start. Auburn wasn’t up to the task against Florida on Saturday night, but still put up 39 points against the Gators. The Tigers defense had allowed 24 total points in the previous two games, and I expect that version in a bounce-back spot here at home. Vandy gave up 31 to NC State and 26 to Delaware and goes on the road for the first time.
CFB Pick: VT/UGA/AUB Moneyline Parlay (-130)
Clemson at California (Friday – 10:30pm ET)
This is my favorite spot of the weekend. Clemson was pretty rude to us last Saturday. With a chance to slide down and seal a 21-20 comeback victory over North Carolina, the Tigers ran one all the way to the house to go up 28-20, which was the eventual final score. I backed under 44.5 and Clemson’s team total under 23.5. Both plays lost as a result of the silly late touchdown.
It was a strange afternoon all the way around in Death Valley. Clemson was trailing 17-3, but mounted an impressive comeback. The game also featured a two and a half hour lightning delay in the fourth quarter. When it was all said and done, the Tigers took nearly six hours to defeat the Tar Heels.
While Clemson did figure things out late, it’s impossible to forget how dreadful it looked early … again. Now, Dabo Swinney and company have to go out on a west coast trip to play at 10:30pm ET on a short week. Not exactly the ideal spot for a Friday night road game across the country.
Cal was home last week and got an easy 49-7 win over Wagner. While Dabo was focused on Bill Belichick last week, I’m sure the Golden Bears have been getting some extra prep in for a big Friday night matchup with Clemson in primetime. Cal will have a massive QB advantage in this one, with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele going up against a freshman that will be making his first road start.
While Clemson’s defense looked good in the second half against UNC, it was shredded in the first two quarters of the game. It was also annihilated in the season opener at LSU. Not that this Cal offense is LSU, but it should certainly be better that UNC. The Cal defense is nothing special, but as I’ve started all season, I have zero faith in the Clemson offense. I expect it to struggle in a tough road environment.
Cal should be hyped up for this one. Meanwhile, Clemson will be fighting against the short week, long travel, all while coming off a big comeback win at home that took nearly six hours. On top of simply not being all that good. Oh, and Clemson could be looking ahead to hosting Miami the following Saturday. Perfect spot to back the Golden Bears on Friday night.
CFB Pick: Cal ML (-115) – 2-units
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