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Purdue at UCLA (Saturday – 11pm ET)
I’ve been on UCLA in each of it first two games this season, and the Bruins are yet to let me down. They’ve been playing close games into the fourth quarter thus far, but Bob Chesney’s squad has been finishing strong and dominating the final frame.
UCLA was tied 24-24 on the road at Cal in Week 1, but outscored the Bears 21-0 in the fourth to win 45-24, easily covering as short favorites. The home opener against San Diego State was more of a grind than anticipated. The game was scoreless at halftime, but UCLA ultimately pulled out a 28-10 win, fueled by a 21-10 fourth quarter. The Bruins covered -12.5, despite it getting dicey late.
The Bruins now catch Purdue in a tough spot for the Boilermakers. Purdue was in a battle all game against Wake Forest last week that ended in heartbreak. The Boilermakers made a nice comeback at home, forcing overtime. It looked like they had the game won, but Wake scored a fourth down touchdown to tie the game on a controversial play, and then hit the 2-point conversion for the win. I was a Purdue +3 backer that just barely cashed.
Now the Boilermakers have to go out to the west coast to face a very strong UCLA team, and they have a lookahead spot to Week 4 as well. Notre Dame comes to West Lafayette next weekend, which is still a hyped in-state rivalry, as lopsided as it may wind up. UCLA will provide by far the best defense Purdue has faced this season, and it comes on the road in a late night game on the west coast.
Purdue has not been good defensively, and I expect the Bruins to be able to score at will, and hopefully get off to a better start than they have the first two weeks. That would go a long way to creating margin in this one, but UCLA is also building the profile of a team we can expect to finish strong. I could see Purdue packing this one in late and getting ready for the Irish at home.
I’ll lay the big number with UCLA to keep rolling.
CFB Pick: UCLA -14 (-110)
