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Florida at Auburn (Saturday – 7pm ET)
Florida’s offense has looked tremendous through the first two games of the Jon Sumrall era. The Gators put up 66 points against FAU and followed it up with 52 against Campbell. But both games were at The Swamp and obviously had the Gators priced as massive favorites. Now the challenge becomes going on the road for a Saturday night game in the SEC.
All four of Florida’s wins came at home last season. While it’s a new program with Sumrall at the helm, the Gators went 0-5 on the road in 2025. All five losses were by double digits, with an average margin of 17.4 points. I expect more fight out of this version of the Gators, but Auburn will be a tough task.
The Tigers opened up the season playing in a grinder against Baylor in Atlanta. Auburn escaped with a 17-16 victory, but left a lot of points on the table. Byrum Brown threw three interceptions and had multiple drives stall in Baylor territory. Against the level of competition that Florida has been facing, Auburn got back on track, scoring 43 points against Southern Miss. The Tigers took their foot off the gas late, and didn’t score any of those points in the fourth quarter.
The Gators have been shredding the ground game in the early going, and that’s something I believe Auburn can take away. Using the Baylor game as reference, the Bears handed it to Dawson Pendergrass 25 times in the opener. He was held to 3.5 yards per carry, and the backup managed just 2.8 YPC on 12 runs.
I like that Auburn already has a test under its belt this season, even if there were some speed bumps. I also feel home field advantage in this one is very valuable, particularly with Florida going on the road for the first time. We’ll learn who the Gators really are on Saturday night.
While I like the coaching hire of Sumrall, he wasn’t able to add much talent to what Florida had last year. I have questions about how successful the Gators can actually be this season, and those questions remain until I see them put it together against quality competition. I had Auburn ranked the better team in the preseason, and am not backing off that now. I made Auburn the favorite in the game prior to the season, when we had this one priced as a pick’em on DraftKings GOTY lines. Now we get Auburn as the home dog because of Florida’s success against lesser opponents. I like the Tigers to get the win at home.
CFB Pick: Auburn +2.5 (-105)
