Miami finished its work Thursday; Wake Forest needed two overtimes Saturday to get home undefeated. Those extra recovery days suit the Hurricanes, who take Darian Mensah’s rather startling efficiency into Winston-Salem on Friday. I’m ready to raise my expectations for their offense. The defense, with both opening-night starting cornerbacks unavailable, needs a separate assessment before I trust another comfortable Miami margin. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Wake Forest Demon Deacons and the Miami Hurricanes.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Wake Forest vs. Miami prediction, preview
Miami clocked in at at 10.0 YPP despite a relatively deliberate 29 seconds between snaps; they were playing slow, but executing big. That combination matters more to me than the 77 points against Florida A&M. Shannon Dawson’s offense can produce explosive gains without hurrying, and that scoring cadence even survived the substitutions: Luke Nickel got in on the fun in a big way after Darian Mensah’s day was over. The dude threw three touchdowns. I underestimated the ferocity of the Canes’ depth last week. This team doesn’t look like it’s content to sit on a multi-score lead.
Wake’s coverage is soft and inviting, although its problems aren’t in allowing explosives, which is what Miami just excelled at. Opponents have completed a staggering 80% of their passes while averaging a much less alarming 6.5 YPA. The Deacs have generally forced catches to stay underneath, but have also allowed opponents to convert 48% of third downs. Through two overtimes, Purdue’s Ryan Browne reached 329 passing yards without a completion longer than 23. Against Mensah, with Malachi Toney working across the formation, I expect the explosives to effervesce from simple underneath execution. That’s Toney’s whole thing.
Gio Lopez gives me a reason to expect more offensive punchback from Wake than Miami has encountered so far. He threw for 225 yards at Purdue and rushed for 59; his wideout Carlos Hernandez carved out six catches for 88 yards. Without OJ Frederique Jr. and Xavier Lucas, Miami started Bryce Fitzgerald and Damari Brown at corner against FAMU. Freshman JJ Dunnigan entered at safety. Lopez’s movement could force that rearranged secondary to cover longer, creating openings FAMU never found. At the very least, Miami will be asking a lot from its new look secondary.
Miami vs. Wake Forest pick, best bet
It hasn’t all been surprisingly good for the Deacs. Wake scored 23 points in regulation at Purdue, but its running backs combined for 84 yards on 26 carries. Lopez’s legs and one 44-yard jet sweep made the team’s rushing total look healthier; it was considerably more concentrated than the box score would suggest. With Lopez listed probable, we should budget for high-leverage scrambles without assuming he’ll be fully cleared to rush with impunity. Ny Carr’s doubtful designation also narrows Wake’s receiving options. As such, I land near 20 Wake points, even against this younger Miami secondary—well below its current 38-point average.
Miami’s protection and passing efficiency get me to six touchdowns, even after discounting its opening production. Wake can threaten this bet with long drives that end in field goals, consuming possessions without matching Miami’s scoring. Still, I prefer asking these offenses for 56 combined points to asking a depleted Miami secondary to protect three touchdowns. My choice is over 55.5.
Best bet: Over 55.5 (-115)
Projected score: Miami 42, Wake Forest 20
Best Bet: Wake Forest vs. Miami o55.5 total points scored (-115)
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