Miami finished its work Thursday; Wake Forest needed two overtimes Saturday to get home undefeated. Those extra recovery days suit the Hurricanes, who take Darian Mensah’s rather startling efficiency into Winston-Salem on Friday. I’m ready to raise my expectations for their offense. The defense, with both opening-night starting cornerbacks unavailable, needs a separate assessment before I trust another comfortable Miami margin. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Oregon Ducks and the Portland State Vikings.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Oregon vs. Portland State prediction, preview
Oregon’s rushing offense has only generated 3.8 YPC and 105 rushing yards per game through two outings. Guard Trent Ferguson’s season-ending knee injury compounds that problem; HC Dan Lanning expects Douglas Utu to return after missing the game in Stillwater. Utu would help restore the intended interior lineup, which means we could project Oregon’s rushing game to get a plus-plus matchup. Ultimately, his availability is far more crucial a component to this handicap than the obvious bounce back spot for the Ducks.
Portland State’s defensive turnover should be fertile ground for Duck detonation. New PSU coach Chris Fisk inherited only one returning defensive starter, and North Dakota just gained 627 yards against his replacements—237 yards against San Diego State and 291 against North Dakota. Which is to say: it’s gotten worse. Ducks RBs Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. should find more room here. Even if Oregon reduces its passing volume and thus pitches themselves into playcalling imbalance, I expect their ground game to find its groove in this one.
The Vikings are not altogether lifeless, despite their 0-3 record, but all the impressive player performances have been empty. Gabe Downing threw for 280 yards at San Diego State, where Portland State racked up 22 first downs. Terence Loville caught 10 passes for 119 yards, so Downing does an established underneath option in his repertoire. So far, Oregon’s defense ranks 129th of 138 teams in negative plays created, too. Their returning starters have yet to produce the steady supply of lost-yardage plays I expected, and it’s possible Portland State could exploit that, steal a score or two. Which makes a nearly sixty-point spread seem altogether unpalatable, thank you very much.
Portland State vs. Oregon pick, best bet
Even after seeing totals get blown out the water last week, I’m keeping the scoring expectation modest for the underdog here. Downing needed 52 attempts for those 280 yards; his first touchdown followed a fumble recovery from his defense at the San Diego State 10. The Vikings also converted only two of five red-zone visits into TDs. Against Oregon’s more vicious front, I expect fewer sustained drives, something in the ballpark of 14 points. I still want to allow for a late garbage score from Portland State as we make our way to the best bet.
Really, Dante Moore should get his throws back on schedule here, because his running game should finally break through to the deeper layers of defenses. I see around eight touchdowns and a field goal for Oregon. And given the state of everything, here, I prefer over 67.5 to Oregon −57.5.
Best bet: Over 67.5 (-112)
Projected score: Oregon 59, Portland State 14
Best Bet: Wake Forest vs. Miami o55.5 total points scored (-115)
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