Houston at Texas Tech (Friday – 8pm ET)
Both the Cougars and Red Raiders open Big 12 play on Friday night at 2-0 on the young season. Texas Tech is the favorite in the conference, and with what is perceived as a relatively easy schedule, this matchup against Houston has been pegged as the toughest task the Red Raiders will face in the regular season.
However, we’ve seen a massive move on this game compared to the preseason market. Texas Tech was priced as high as a 14.5-point home favorite in this one over the summer, which has now been cut in half. After a dominant 2025 regular season, Texas Tech was expected to maintain its dominance over the rest of the conference.
Thus far, Tech hasn’t looked the part. It opened the season with a 33-10 win over an FCS opponent as nearly a 45-point favorite, and then went on the road to face Oregon State at a 25.5-point favorite and barely escaped. A late touchdown gave the Raiders a 35-24 win, but they trailed in the fourth quarter. What really stood out is that what was supposed to be a dominant defense has not been.
The pass rush has been lacking, and the Beavers racked up over 400 passing yards in the game. Houston has the common opponent here, although it hosted Oregon State. The Cougars won by 13 points, but in a game they were fully in control — led 19-7 at halftime and maintained the lead through the second half.
It’s created an interesting spot, as early money in the market pounded Houston. Things have leveled off a bit, but as of Friday morning, over 60% of the tickets and handle have taken the points with the Cougars, who also have 42% of the money to win the game outright.
This is going to be a public underdog, creating a tempting situation to take a touchdown discount off the preseason line on a favorite that nobody believes in. Houston will be playing its first road game of the season in a rowdy road atmosphere. I’d love to get this down to -7 and back the Red Raiders, but I’m not sure the market will get that low before kickoff.
Texas Tech’s QB situation is also of note. Will Hammond has been good, not great. It’s led to Tommy Castellanos, a late addition who was cleared to return to the NCAA after playing at UCF, BC and FSU, seeing more playing time. He scored a touchdown through the air and on the ground on Saturday in Corvallis, and could be working his way into a larger role. I’m intrigued by a potential QB chance sparking this offense.
It hasn’t been pretty so far for Texas Tech, but remember how much talent this team has. I’m tempted to buy low here, and will at -7 or less. At the current number of -7.5, I lean to a play on the Red Raiders to wake up and show out in their first big game of the season.
CFB Lean: Texas Tech -7.5 (-110)
